{"id":51750,"date":"2026-07-25T01:59:24","date_gmt":"2026-07-25T01:59:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e4%b8%a5%e9%98%b5%e4%bb%a5%e5%be%85%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e3%80%81%e8%8b%b1%e5%9b%bd%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e4%b8%8e%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%86%b3\/"},"modified":"2026-07-25T01:59:24","modified_gmt":"2026-07-25T01:59:24","slug":"%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e4%b8%a5%e9%98%b5%e4%bb%a5%e5%be%85%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e3%80%81%e8%8b%b1%e5%9b%bd%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e4%b8%8e%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%86%b3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e4%b8%a5%e9%98%b5%e4%bb%a5%e5%be%85%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e3%80%81%e8%8b%b1%e5%9b%bd%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e4%b8%8e%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%86%b3\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u4e25\u9635\u4ee5\u5f85\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u4e0e\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u51b3\u8bae\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7ef4\u6301\u5f3a\u52bf\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u4e0a\u5347"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u8fce\u6765\u653f\u7b56\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u4e00\u5468\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u770b\u70b9\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u7684\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u5f98\u5f8a\u5728101.50\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u65b9\u9762\u9996\u5148\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u8010\u7528\u54c1\u8ba2\u5355\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u8ba16\u6708\u5c06\u589e\u957f1.6%\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u4e3a\u4e0b\u6ed14.5%\uff1b\u5254\u9664\u8fd0\u8f93\u540e\u7684\u8ba2\u5355\u9884\u8ba1\u589e\u957f0.9%\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u7ef4\u6301\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\u57283.50%\u20133.75%\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u4e14\u672c\u6b21\u4e0d\u53d1\u5e03\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\u6458\u8981\u300b\uff08SEP\uff09\uff1b\u5e02\u573a\u7126\u70b9\u5c06\u8f6c\u5411\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e\u53ca\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\uff08Kevin Warsh\uff09\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u3002\u5468\u56db\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6570\u636e\uff1a\u521d\u503c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6GDP\u5e74\u5316\u589e\u901f\u9884\u8ba1\u4e3a2.3%\uff08\u524d\u503c2.1%\uff09\uff1b\u6838\u5fc3PCE\u901a\u80c0\u73af\u6bd4\u9884\u8ba1\u4e3a0.1%\uff08\u524d\u503c0.3%\uff09\uff1b\u521d\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u91d1\u4eba\u6570\u9884\u8ba1\u4e3a20.6\u4e07\uff08\u524d\u503c18.7\u4e07\uff09\uff1b\u6b64\u524dPCE\u901a\u80c0\u540c\u6bd4\u4e3a4.1%\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3PCE\u540c\u6bd4\u4e3a3.4%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\/\u7f8e\u5143\u4ea4\u6295\u4e8e1.1370\u9644\u8fd1\uff1b\u5fb7\u56fdIFO\u5546\u4e1a\u666f\u6c14\u6307\u6570\u9884\u8ba1\u4e3a86.1\uff08\u524d\u503c85.6\uff09\u3002\u6b27\u5143\u533aHICP\u901a\u80c0\u540c\u6bd4\u9884\u8ba1\u4e3a2.9%\uff08\u524d\u503c2.8%\uff09\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3HICP\u9884\u8ba1\u4e3a2.4%\u3002\u82f1\u9551\/\u7f8e\u5143\u57281.3325\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u9759\u5f85\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u51b3\u8bae\uff1b\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u7ef4\u6301\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\uff08Bank Rate\uff09\u57283.75%\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a7\u20132\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\u53ca\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\/\u65e5\u5143\u5728163.80\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u7b49\u5f85\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u51b3\u8bae\uff1b\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u9884\u8ba1\u7ef4\u6301\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u57281.00%\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u6570\u636e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e1c\u4eacCPI\uff08\u5254\u9664\u751f\u9c9c\u98df\u54c1\uff09\u540c\u6bd4\u9884\u8ba11.8%\uff08\u524d\u503c1.6%\uff09\uff1b\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u9884\u8ba12.5%\uff1b\u96f6\u552e\u8d38\u6613\u589e\u901f\u9884\u8ba12.8%\uff08\u524d\u503c5.3%\uff09\u3002\u6fb3\u5143\/\u7f8e\u5143\u57280.6980\u9644\u8fd1\uff1b\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u6708\u5ea6CPI\u9884\u8ba1\u73af\u6bd40.3%\uff08\u524d\u503c-0.7%\uff09\uff1b\u901a\u80c0\u540c\u6bd4\u6b64\u524d\u4e3a4.0%\uff0c\u622a\u5c3e\u5747\u503c\u901a\u80c0\u540c\u6bd4\u4e3a3.6%\uff0c\u57fa\u7840\u6708\u5ea6\u6307\u6807\u9884\u8ba1\u73af\u6bd40.4%\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\u9884\u8ba149.9\uff08\u524d\u503c50.3\uff09\uff0c\u975e\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\u9884\u8ba150.0\uff08\u524d\u503c50.2\uff09\u3002WTI\u539f\u6cb9\u4ea4\u6295\u4e8e89.20\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u7ea6\u4e3a4,065\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u592e\u884c\u51b3\u8bae\u4e0e\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u671f\u6743\u4e0e\u671f\u8d27\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u8fdb\u51652026\u5e74\u6700\u5173\u952e\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5468\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u4e0e\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u5bc6\u96c6\u516c\u5e03\u653f\u7b56\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u7ecf\u9a8c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5f53\u591a\u5bb6\u4e3b\u8981\u592e\u884c\u51b3\u8bae\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u5468\u53e0\u52a0\u65f6\uff0cG10\u8d27\u5e01\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5f80\u5f80\u663e\u8457\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u524d\u6570\u65e5\u7684\u5347\u5e45\u6709\u65f6\u8d85\u8fc715%\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u4e3a\u6355\u6349\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6ea2\u4ef7\u6269\u5f20\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u57287\u670829\u65e5\u592e\u884c\u51b3\u8bae\u5f00\u542f\u524d\u7684\u6b27\u5143\/\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\/\u65e5\u5143\u54c1\u79cd\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9884\u8ba1\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e8e3.50%\u20133.75%\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5e94\u5c06\u4e3b\u8981\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e3b\u5e2d\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u7684\u63aa\u8f9e\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u672c\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0d\u53d1\u5e03\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u5728\u58f0\u660e\u53d1\u5e03\u540e\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u5c06\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e38\u6001\u3002\u505a\u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\uff08DXY\uff09\u8de8\u5f0f\u671f\u6743\uff08long straddle\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u5468\u56db\u6838\u5fc3PCE\u901a\u80c0\u62162.3%\u7684GDP\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u4e0d\u53ca\u9884\u671f\u65f6\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u7a81\u53d1\u884c\u60c5\u83b7\u53d6\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5468\u56db\u9884\u8ba1\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u3001\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u57283.75%\uff0c\u4e3a\u671f\u6743\u6ea2\u4ef7\u5356\u65b9\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u73af\u5883\u3002\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7ed3\u679c\uff08\u5e76\u7531\u6b64\u524d7\u20132\u7684\u7968\u59d4\u5206\u6b67\u6240\u652f\u6491\uff09\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u5728\u51b3\u8bae\u516c\u5e03\u540e\u89e6\u53d1\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5feb\u901f\u56de\u843d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81\u00b7\u8d1d\u5229\uff08Andrew Bailey\uff09\u8bb2\u8bdd\u524d\uff0c\u4e8e\u82f1\u9551\/\u7f8e\u5143\u90e8\u7f72\u94c1\u9e70\u7b56\u7565\uff08iron condor\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u628a\u63e1\u201c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6324\u538b\u201d\uff08volatility crush\uff09\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\/\u65e5\u5143\u5728163.80\u8fd9\u4e00\u654f\u611f\u4f4d\u7f6e\u9644\u8fd1\u4ea4\u6295\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u5bf9\u5468\u4e94\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u51b3\u8bae\u4e0e\u4e1c\u4eacCPI\u6570\u636e\u9ad8\u5ea6\u654f\u611f\u3002\u82e5\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u7ef4\u6301\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u57281.00%\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u96f6\u552e\u8d38\u6613\u589e\u901f\u653e\u7f13\u81f3\u9884\u8ba1\u76842.8%\uff0c\u65e5\u5143\u5957\u606f\u4ea4\u6613\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u5feb\u901f\u5e73\u4ed3\u3002\u4e3a\u5bf9\u51b2\u8be5\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4e70\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\/\u65e5\u5143\u865a\u503c\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff08out-of-the-money put\uff09\u53ef\u5728\u4e0b\u884c\u6025\u8f6c\u65f6\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fdd\u62a4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n

\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u5728\u524d\u6240\u672a\u89c1\u76844,065\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u800cWTI\u539f\u6cb9\u572889.20\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u9ec4\u91d1\u671f\u8d27\u5bf9\u7f8e\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u9ad8\u5ea6\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5c06\u5bf9\u5468\u4e09\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u63aa\u8f9e\u505a\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5efa\u8bae\u901a\u8fc7\u9ec4\u91d1\u725b\u5e02\u770b\u6da8\u4ef7\u5dee\uff08bull call spread\uff09\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u671f\u6743\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u6210\u672c\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u8fdb\u884c\u591a\u5934\u5e03\u5c40\uff1b\u82e5PCE\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u504f\u8f6f\u5f15\u53d1\u91d1\u4ef7\u4e0a\u884c\uff0c\u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u6709\u671b\u53d7\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 \u2014 \u70b9\u51fb\u6b64\u5904<\/a>\u5f00\u8bbe\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5b9e\u8d26\u6237\u3002<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u653f\u7b56\u5bc6\u96c6\u5468\u5f15\u7206\u6ce2\u52a8\u6ea2\u4ef7\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u3001\u82f1\u592e\u884c\u3001\u65e5\u592e\u884c\u6599\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u5173\u6ce8\u63aa\u8f9e\u4e0e\u6570\u636e\u6270\u52a8\uff1b\u6b27\u5143\u3001\u65e5\u5143\u53ca\u9ec4\u91d1\u539f\u6cb9\u6216\u8fce\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6269\u5f20\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50111,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51750","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51750"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51750\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50111"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}