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\u6cd5\u5174\u94f6\u884c\uff08Societe Generale\uff09\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\uff08Banco Central do Brasil\uff09\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\u652f\u6301\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u201c\u6682\u505c\u201d\u6240\u6253\u65ad\u7684\u964d\u606f\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u52302028\u5e74\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u5c06\u901a\u80c0\u5f15\u5bfc\u56de3%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u7eaa\u8981\u8fd8\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u6cbf\u7740\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u9884\u671f\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u884c\u4e8b\uff0c\u4ee5\u9650\u5236\u91d1\u878d\u4e0e\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n

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\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f<\/h3>\n\n

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\u5728Selic\u5229\u7387\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a9.75%\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca2026\u5e745\u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\uff08IPCA-15\uff09\u7ef4\u6301\u57284.1%\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u5c06\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u5b63\u5ea6\u901a\u80c0\u62a5\u544a\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u5173\u952e\u50ac\u5316\u5242\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u504f\u79bb\u4e00\u81f4\u9884\u671f\uff08consensus forecast\uff09\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u5e02\u573a\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u8be5\u6570\u636e\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u51b3\u5b9a\u592e\u884c\u5728\u4e0b\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u662f\u6682\u505c\u964d\u606f\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u7ee7\u7eed\u5c0f\u5e45\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n

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\u901a\u80c0\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n\n

\u9274\u4e8e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u6570\u5468\u901a\u8fc7\u671f\u6743\u201c\u4e70\u5165\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u201d\u662f\u8f83\u4e3a\u5ba1\u614e\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u3002\u5728USD\/BRL\u671f\u8d27\u4e0a\u6784\u5efa\u957f\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08long straddle\uff09\u2014\u2014\u5373\u5728\u76f8\u540c\u6267\u884c\u4ef7\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\u2014\u2014\u53ef\u4ee4\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u62a5\u544a\u516c\u5e03\u540e\u3001\u6c47\u7387\u51fa\u73b0\u4efb\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u663e\u8457\u6ce2\u52a8\u65f6\u83b7\u5229\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5bf9\u51b2\u592e\u884c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u52a8\u4f5c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n

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