{"id":47351,"date":"2026-05-20T18:53:31","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T18:53:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e5%8d%b0%e5%b0%bc%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e6%84%8f%e5%a4%96%e5%8a%a0%e6%81%af50%e4%b8%aa%e5%9f%ba%e7%82%b9%e5%b9%b6%e6%94%b6%e7%b4%a7%e5%a4%96%e6%b1%87%e6%8e%aa%e6%96%bd%ef%bc%8c%e5%9c%a8%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83\/"},"modified":"2026-05-20T18:53:31","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T18:53:31","slug":"%e5%8d%b0%e5%b0%bc%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e6%84%8f%e5%a4%96%e5%8a%a0%e6%81%af50%e4%b8%aa%e5%9f%ba%e7%82%b9%e5%b9%b6%e6%94%b6%e7%b4%a7%e5%a4%96%e6%b1%87%e6%8e%aa%e6%96%bd%ef%bc%8c%e5%9c%a8%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e5%8d%b0%e5%b0%bc%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e6%84%8f%e5%a4%96%e5%8a%a0%e6%81%af50%e4%b8%aa%e5%9f%ba%e7%82%b9%e5%b9%b6%e6%94%b6%e7%b4%a7%e5%a4%96%e6%b1%87%e6%8e%aa%e6%96%bd%ef%bc%8c%e5%9c%a8%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5370\u5c3c\u592e\u884c\u610f\u5916\u52a0\u606f50\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u5e76\u6536\u7d27\u5916\u6c47\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u52a8\u8361\u4e2d\u63d0\u632f\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5370\u5c3c\u592e\u884c\uff08Bank Indonesia\uff09\u628a\u5173\u952e\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8c0350\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff08bp\uff0c\u6307\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8c030.50\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff09\u81f35.25%\uff0c\u4ee5\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u51b2\u7a81\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6ce2\u52a8\u52a0\u5267\u4e0b\u652f\u6491\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\uff08Rupiah\uff0c\u5370\u5c3c\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4ee3\u7801IDR\uff09\u3002\u592e\u884c\u4e5f\u63d0\u51fa\u66f4\u7d27\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u6c47\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u603b\u88c1Perry Warjiyo\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c06\u901a\u8fc7\u79bb\u5cb8\u4e0e\u5728\u5cb8\u7684NDF\uff08\u65e0\u672c\u91d1\u4ea4\u5272\u8fdc\u671f\uff0c\u5c5e\u4e8e\u8fdc\u671f\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\uff0c\u7ed3\u7b97\u65f6\u4e0d\u4ea4\u5272\u771f\u5b9e\u5916\u6c47\u3001\u53ea\u6309\u4ef7\u5dee\u4ee5\u73b0\u91d1\u7ed3\u7b97\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5373\u671f\u5e02\u573a\uff08spot markets\uff0c\u6309\u5f53\u524d\u4ef7\u683c\u5373\u65f6\u6210\u4ea4\u7684\u5916\u6c47\u4ea4\u6613\uff09\u52a0\u5927\u5916\u6c47\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230\u5c06\u6539\u8fdb\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u8c03\u8282\u5e02\u573a\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u6765\u7ba1\u7406\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff08\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u591a\u5be1\uff09\u5e76\u652f\u6491\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u634d\u536b\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u6210\u9996\u8981\u4efb\u52a1<\/h3>\n<p>\u8fd9\u6b21\u653f\u7b56\u8c03\u6574\u65e8\u5728\u628a\u901a\u80c0\u7ef4\u6301\u57282026\u20132027\u5e741.5%\u20133.5%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5168\u7403\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u5e26\u6765\u538b\u529b\u3002\u62a5\u9053\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230\u4e0e\u901a\u8fc7\u4e3b\u6743\u8d22\u5bcc\u57fa\u91d1\uff08\u7531\u653f\u5e9c\u8bbe\u7acb\u3001\u7528\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u7ba1\u7406\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\uff09\u96c6\u4e2d\u7ba1\u7406\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u51fa\u53e3\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2026\u5e74GDP\uff08\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff09\u589e\u957f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a4.9%\u20135.7%\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u652f\u6491\u56e0\u7d20\u30022026\u5e74\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u8d64\u5b57\uff08\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u5916\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u6536\u652f\u5dee\u989d\u4e3a\u8d1f\uff09\u9884\u8ba1\u4e3aGDP\u76840.5%\u20131.3%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5370\u5c3c\u592e\u884c\u610f\u5916\u5927\u5e45\u52a0\u606f50\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u662f\u660e\u786e\u652f\u6491\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u7684\u5f3a\u70c8\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u66f4\u5f3a\u786c\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u6c47\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u201c\u5e95\u90e8\u201d\uff08\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u518d\u5927\u8dcc\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u505a\u7a7a\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\uff08\u62bc\u6ce8\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u8d70\u5f31\uff09\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u5371\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u9879\u884c\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u538b\u4f4e\u77ed\u671f\u6c47\u7387\u6ce2\u52a8\uff08\u4ef7\u683c\u8d77\u4f0f\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u592e\u884c\u6001\u5ea6\u5df2\u975e\u5e38\u6e05\u695a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u57282025\u5e74\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u627f\u538b\u65f6\u4e5f\u89c1\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u60c5\u51b5\uff1a\u679c\u65ad\u884c\u52a8\u4f1a\u8ba9\u671f\u6743\u6210\u672c\uff08\u4e70\u671f\u6743\u8981\u4ed8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff09\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\u5356\u51faUSD\/IDR\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08call options\uff0c\u4e70\u65b9\u6709\u6743\u5728\u672a\u6765\u6309\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\/\u5356\u51fa\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff1b\u5356\u51fa\u8005\u6536\u53d6\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u3001\u62bc\u6ce8\u6c47\u7387\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5927\u6da8\uff09\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u6c47\u7387\u4ece\u73b0\u5728\u8d77\u8d8b\u7a33\u6216\u8d70\u5f3a\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u5e02\u573a\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\u5957\u5229\u4e0e\u5bf9\u51b2<\/h3>\n<p>\u8fd9\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u7406\u7531\u663e\u7136\u662f\u6c47\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u901a\u80c0\u672c\u8eab\u30022026\u5e744\u6708\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u901a\u80c0\u4e3a3.1%\uff0c\u4ecd\u5728\u592e\u884c\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\u5185\u3002\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u63d0\u524d\u51fa\u624b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u516c\u4fe1\u529b\u6765\u634d\u536b\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u5347\u81f35.25%\u540e\uff0c\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u5957\u5229\u4ea4\u6613\uff08carry trade\uff0c\u501f\u5165\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u8d27\u5e01\u3001\u4e70\u5165\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u8d27\u5e01\u8d5a\u53d6\u5229\u5dee\uff09\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u660e\u663e\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u7ea65.0%\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u3002\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u4f1a\u5438\u5f15\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u5165\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u5347\u5728\u8fdc\u671f\u5e02\u573a\uff08forward markets\uff0c\u6309\u672a\u6765\u4ea4\u5272\u4ef7\u683c\u6210\u4ea4\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff09\u505a\u591a\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\uff08long IDR\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u8d70\u5f3a\/\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u8d70\u4f4e\uff09\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u8fd9\u4f1a\u4e3a\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u4e70\u76d8\u652f\u6491\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5b8f\u89c2\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4e5f\u8ba9\u6301\u6709\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u8d44\u4ea7\u66f4\u5b89\u5fc3\u30022026\u5e74GDP\u589e\u957f\u9884\u8ba1\u63a5\u8fd15%\uff0c\u5370\u5c3c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u7840\u7a33\u5065\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u8d64\u5b57\u53ef\u63a7\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9274\u4e8e\u592e\u884c\u627f\u8bfa\u4f7f\u7528\u5373\u671f\u3001NDF\u7b49\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5e94\u628a\u8fd9\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u5957\u534f\u8c03\u7684\u6c47\u7387\u7ba1\u7406\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5bf9\u51b2\uff08hedging\uff0c\u7528\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\u964d\u4f4e\u6c47\u7387\u4e0d\u5229\u53d8\u52a8\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u7ee7\u7eed\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u6210\u672c\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u89c2\u5bdfUSD\/IDR\uff08\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\uff09\u80fd\u5426\u5b88\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u7a81\u7834\u768416,450\u6c34\u5e73\u4e4b\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u51b2\u7a81\u63a8\u5347\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u5370\u5c3c\u592e\u884c\u610f\u5916\u52a0\u606f50bp\u81f35.25%\u634d\u536b\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u5316NDF\u4e0e\u5373\u671f\u5e72\u9884\u3002\u5229\u5dee\u6269\u5927\u5229\u597d\u5957\u5229\u4e0e\u505a\u591aIDR\uff0c\u505a\u7a7a\u98ce\u9669\u5347\u6e29\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47351","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47351","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47351"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47351\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}