{"id":47274,"date":"2026-05-20T02:50:12","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T02:50:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e5%9b%bd%e5%80%ba%e6%94%b6%e7%9b%8a%e7%8e%87%e6%94%80%e5%8d%87%e4%b8%8e%e6%b2%b9%e4%bb%b7%e5%86%b2%e5%87%bb%e9%87%8d%e6%8c%ab%e4%ba%9a%e6%b4%b2%e6%96%b0%e5%85%b4%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba\/"},"modified":"2026-05-20T02:50:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T02:50:12","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e5%9b%bd%e5%80%ba%e6%94%b6%e7%9b%8a%e7%8e%87%e6%94%80%e5%8d%87%e4%b8%8e%e6%b2%b9%e4%bb%b7%e5%86%b2%e5%87%bb%e9%87%8d%e6%8c%ab%e4%ba%9a%e6%b4%b2%e6%96%b0%e5%85%b4%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e5%9b%bd%e5%80%ba%e6%94%b6%e7%9b%8a%e7%8e%87%e6%94%80%e5%8d%87%e4%b8%8e%e6%b2%b9%e4%bb%b7%e5%86%b2%e5%87%bb%e9%87%8d%e6%8c%ab%e4%ba%9a%e6%b4%b2%e6%96%b0%e5%85%b4%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6500\u5347\u4e0e\u6cb9\u4ef7\u51b2\u51fb\u91cd\u632b\u4e9a\u6d32\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5370\u5c3c\u548c\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u627f\u538b"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e9a\u6d32\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u8d44\u4ea7\u627f\u538b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8d70\u9ad8\u3001\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u6cb9\u4ef7\u7a81\u53d1\u5927\u6da8\uff08oil shock\uff1a\u6cb9\u4ef7\u5728\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u6025\u5347\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u901a\u80c0\uff09\uff0c\u4ee4\u5370\u5c3c\u3001\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u538b\u529b\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316\u901a\u5e38\u4e0e\u8d44\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\uff08capital outflows\uff1a\u56fd\u9645\u8d44\u91d1\u64a4\u51fa\u5f53\u5730\u5e02\u573a\uff09\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u8d70\u5f31\u3001\u878d\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u4e5f\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff08\u901a\u80c0\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u503a\u5238\u5b9e\u9645\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u63a8\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u5370\u5c3c\uff0c\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\uff08rupiah\uff0cIDR\uff09\u5df2\u8dcc\u81f3\u7eaa\u5f55\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0b\u632b\uff0c10\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u63a5\u8fd16.76%\u3002\u81ea\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83\u00b7\u82cf\u6bd4\u5b89\u6258\uff08Prabowo Subianto\uff09\u4e8e2024\u5e7410\u6708\u4e0a\u4efb\u4ee5\u6765\uff0cIDR\u5df2\u4e0b\u8dcc14%\uff0c\u7a46\u8fea\uff08Moody\u2019s\uff09\u4e0e\u60e0\u8a89\uff08Fitch\uff09\u4e5f\u4e0b\u8c03\u4e86\u5370\u5c3c\u503a\u5238\u8bc4\u7ea7\uff08downgrade\uff1a\u8c03\u4f4e\u4fe1\u7528\u7b49\u7ea7\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u8fdd\u7ea6\u98ce\u9669\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001\u501f\u94b1\u66f4\u8d35\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

Indonesia Index And Policy Shock<\/h3>\n

MSCI\uff08\u660e\u665f\u6307\u6570\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6307\u6570\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u8ddf\u8e2a\u4e70\u5356\uff09\u5c066\u5bb6\u5370\u5c3c\u516c\u53f8\u79fb\u51fa\u5176\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u5e76\u5c0613\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u4ece\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u6307\u6570\uff08small-cap index\uff1a\u4ee5\u5e02\u503c\u8f83\u5c0f\u516c\u53f8\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7684\u6307\u6570\uff09\u4e2d\u5254\u9664\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8c03\u6574\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u62c5\u5fe7\u653f\u5e9c\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\u4e4b\u540e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\uff0c\u539f\u5b9a\u76847\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u53d1\u884c\u88ab\u53d6\u6d88\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6295\u6807\u663e\u793a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6700\u9ad8\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u52308.125%\u3002\u8be5\u6b21\u539f\u8ba1\u5212\u53d1\u884cPHP 300\u4ebf\uff08PHP\uff1a\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u6bd4\u7d22\uff09\uff0c\u6536\u5230PHP 370\u4ebf\u6295\u6807\uff0c\u4f46\u6240\u6709\u6295\u6807\u90fd\u88ab\u62d2\u7edd\uff08\u4ee3\u8868\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u613f\u6309\u5e02\u573a\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u501f\u94b1\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u5370\u5ea6\uff0c10\u5e74\u671f\u5229\u7387\u5728\u524d\u4e00\u65e5\u4e0a\u53477\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff08bp\uff0cbasis point\uff1a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c1bp=0.01\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff09\u540e\uff0c\u56de\u843d3\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u81f37.10%\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u71c3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u8c033%\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u56db\u5e74\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u4e0a\u8c03\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9274\u4e8e\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u66f4\u660e\u663e\u5206\u5316\uff08divergence\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u56fd\u5bb6\u6216\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d70\u52bf\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\uff09\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u73af\u5883\u4e0e2024\u5e74\u672b\u81f32025\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u538b\u529b\u9636\u6bb5\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u89e6\u53d1\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u76f8\u8fd1\u3002\u7b56\u7565\u4e0a\u53ef\u805a\u7126\u6700\u5f31\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u627f\u8ba4\u90e8\u5206\u5e02\u573a\u76f8\u5bf9\u66f4\u7a33\u3002<\/p>\n

Trade Positioning And Relative Value<\/h3>\n

\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u662f\u6700\u660e\u663e\u7684\u505a\u7a7a\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u3001\u4fe1\u7528\u8bc4\u7ea7\u4e0b\u8c03\uff0c\u4ee5\u53caMSCI\u5254\u9664\u6210\u5206\u80a1\u3002\u56de\u987e\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c2024\u5e744\u6708\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u8dcc\u7834\u6bcf\u7f8e\u514316,200\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u663e\u793a\u60c5\u7eea\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u5feb\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u76ee\u524d\u60c5\u51b5\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u66f4\u4e25\u5cfb\u3002\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u65e0\u672c\u91d1\u4ea4\u5272\u8fdc\u671f\uff08NDF\uff0cnon-deliverable forward\uff1a\u4e0d\u5b9e\u9645\u4ea4\u5272\u5916\u5e01\u3001\u5230\u671f\u7528\u5dee\u4ef7\u7ed3\u7b97\u7684\u8fdc\u671f\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4e8e\u7ba1\u5236\u6216\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8f83\u5dee\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\uff09\u5efa\u7acb\u505a\u7a7aIDR\u3001\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\uff0c\u4ee5\u62bc\u6ce8\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8d70\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n

\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u56fd\u503a\u62cd\u5356\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u878d\u8d44\u538b\u529b\u6b63\u5728\u6269\u5927\uff1a\u653f\u5e9c\u65e0\u6cd5\u4ee5\u5e02\u573a\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u5229\u7387\u501f\u5230\u94b1\u3002\u8fd9\u901a\u5e38\u610f\u5473\u7740\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8feb\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5e26\u6765\u4ea4\u6613\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u53ef\u4f7f\u7528\u5229\u7387\u6389\u671f\uff08interest rate swaps\uff1a\u53cc\u65b9\u4ea4\u6362\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u6d6e\u52a8\u5229\u7387\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4e8e\u5bf9\u51b2\u6216\u62bc\u6ce8\u5229\u7387\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u5e03\u5c40\u672a\u6765\u6570\u6708\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0a\u8c03\u71c3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u663e\u793a\u8d22\u653f\u7eaa\u5f8b\uff08fiscal discipline\uff1a\u63a7\u5236\u5f00\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u8d22\u653f\u5931\u63a7\uff09\uff0c\u76f8\u5bf9\u66f4\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u5f62\u6210\u5178\u578b\u914d\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\uff08pairs trade\uff1a\u540c\u65f6\u505a\u591a\u8f83\u5f3a\u8d44\u4ea7\u3001\u505a\u7a7a\u8f83\u5f31\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u6574\u4f53\u5e02\u573a\u65b9\u5411\u98ce\u9669\uff09\uff1a\u505a\u591a\u5370\u5ea6\u5362\u6bd4\uff08INR\uff09\u5e76\u505a\u7a7a\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\uff08IDR\uff09\u3002\u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u4ece\u5370\u5c3c\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u5f31\u70b9\u83b7\u5229\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5bf9\u51b2\u7f8e\u5143\u6574\u4f53\u6ce2\u52a8\uff08broad move\uff1a\u7f8e\u5143\u6574\u4f53\u8d8b\u52bf\uff09\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u80a1\u7968\u65b9\u9762\uff0cMSCI\u518d\u5e73\u8861\uff08rebalancing\uff1a\u6307\u6570\u6309\u89c4\u5219\u8c03\u6574\u6210\u5206\u80a1\u4e0e\u6743\u91cd\uff09\u662f\u505a\u7a7a\u5370\u5c3c\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u50ac\u5316\u5242\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u6307\u6570\u671f\u8d27\uff08index futures\uff1a\u4ee5\u6307\u6570\u4e3a\u6807\u7684\u7684\u671f\u8d27\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002\u5927\u578b\u516c\u53f8\u88ab\u5254\u9664\u4f1a\u89e6\u53d1\u88ab\u52a8\u57fa\u91d1\uff08index-tracking funds\uff1a\u6309\u6307\u6570\u4e70\u5356\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\uff09\u88ab\u8feb\u5356\u51fa\uff0c\u4ee4\u80a1\u4ef7\u627f\u538b\u3002\u8fd9\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9a71\u52a8\u4ea4\u6613\uff08event-driven\uff1a\u7531\u7279\u5b9a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u89e6\u53d1\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0e\u504f\u8d1f\u9762\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u73af\u5883\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6574\u4f53\u5c40\u52bf\u8ba9\u4eba\u60f3\u8d771997\u5e74\u4e9a\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff1a\u8d44\u91d1\u5916\u9003\u4e0e\u8d27\u5e01\u8fde\u9501\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff08currency contagion\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u8d27\u5e01\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5f15\u53d1\u533a\u57df\u5176\u4ed6\u8d27\u5e01\u8ddf\u8dcc\uff09\u662f\u4e3b\u8f74\u3002\u5f53\u5e74\u5728\u5f3a\u5927\u5e02\u573a\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5e72\u9884\u5e38\u5e38\u6548\u679c\u6709\u9650\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u5b98\u65b9\u652f\u6301\u4fdd\u6301\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u5e76\u5173\u6ce8\u533a\u57df\u8d44\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\u52a0\u901f\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u6cb9\u4ef7\u7a81\u88ad\u53e0\u52a0\u7f8e\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u98d9\u5347\u3001\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\uff0c\u4e9a\u6d32\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u518d\u73b01997\u5f0f\u538b\u529b\uff1a\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u521b\u65b0\u4f4e\u3001MSCI\u5254\u9664\u52a0\u5267\uff1b\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u62cd\u5356\u6d41\u6807\u3001\u5229\u7387\u6216\u4e0a\u884c\uff1b\u5370\u5ea6\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\uff0c\u53ef\u505a\u591aINR\u5bf9\u51b2\u505a\u7a7aIDR\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47274","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47274"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47274\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}