{"id":47152,"date":"2026-05-18T21:52:44","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T21:52:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e7%bb%b4%e6%8c%81%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e5%b3%b0%e5%80%bc4-60%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%ef%bc%8c%e5%9b%a0%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e9%87%8d\/"},"modified":"2026-05-18T21:52:44","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T21:52:44","slug":"%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e7%bb%b4%e6%8c%81%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e5%b3%b0%e5%80%bc4-60%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%ef%bc%8c%e5%9b%a0%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e9%87%8d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e7%bb%b4%e6%8c%81%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e5%b3%b0%e5%80%bc4-60%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%ef%bc%8c%e5%9b%a0%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e9%87%8d\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9053\u660e\u8bc1\u5238\u7ef4\u6301\u6fb3\u6d32\u8054\u50a8\u5229\u7387\u5cf0\u503c4.60%\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u56e0\u5e02\u573a\u91cd\u4f30\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u6982\u7387"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TD Securities \u9884\u8ba1\u6fb3\u6d32\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\uff08RBA\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff09\u5728\u672c\u8f6e\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c06\u628a\u73b0\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08cash rate\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u5f71\u54cd\u94f6\u884c\u501f\u8d37\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u5229\u7387\uff09\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f3\u6700\u9ad8 4.60%\u3002TD \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u770b\u6cd5\u65e9\u57282\u6708\u5c31\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4ecd\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>TD \u4e5f\u89e3\u8bfb RBA 5\u6708\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e\uff08policy statement\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u8bf4\u660e\uff09\u4e3a\uff1a\u5bf96\u6708\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u6001\u5ea6\u504f\u4fdd\u5b88\uff0c\u5e76\u9884\u8ba1 RBA \u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\uff08minutes\uff0c\u4f1a\u8bae\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e0e\u8ba8\u8bba\u6458\u8981\uff09\u4f1a\u66f4\u6e05\u695a\u4ea4\u4ee3\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\uff08Board\uff0c\u8d1f\u8d23\u51b3\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7684\u59d4\u5458\uff09\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f856\u6708\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Market Expectations And Rate Path<\/h3>\n<p>\u6309 TD \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u4f1a\u57288\u6708\uff0c\u628a\u73b0\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u63a8\u81f3 4.60% \u9876\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u5185\u5bb9\u4f7f\u7528\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5de5\u5177\u751f\u6210\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u7f16\u8f91\u5ba1\u6838\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56de\u987e\u6211\u4eec\u57282025\u5e74\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a RBA \u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u628a\u73b0\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f3 4.60%\uff0c\u5e76\u540c\u6837\u63a8\u6d4b8\u6708\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u65f6\u653f\u7b56\u8baf\u606f\u663e\u793a\u592e\u884c\u5bf9\u8fc7\u5feb\u884c\u52a8\u6709\u6240\u72b9\u8c6b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c4.60% \u7684\u9876\u70b9\u5e76\u672a\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u73b0\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u53cd\u800c\u957f\u671f\u7ef4\u6301\u5728 4.35%\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u5ef6\u7eed\u52302026\u5e74\uff1b\u5373\u4f7f\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u504f\u987d\u56fa\uff08persistent\uff0c\u6307\u4e0b\u964d\u901f\u5ea6\u6162\u3001\u6301\u7eed\u504f\u9ad8\uff09\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u5b63\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u4e3a 3.6%\uff0c\u4ecd\u9ad8\u4e8e RBA \u7684 2\u20133% \u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u4f9d\u65e7\u7d27\u5f20\uff08tight labour market\uff0c\u6307\u4eba\u624b\u504f\u7d27\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u8f83\u96be\u62db\u8058\uff09\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7565\u9ad8\u4e8e 4%\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Trading Implications For Rates Volatility<\/h3>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ec4\u5408\u6b63\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5e02\u573a\u91cd\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u5229\u7387\u524d\u666f\uff1a\u539f\u672c\u504f\u5411\u9884\u6d4b\u4eca\u5e74\u7a0d\u540e\u964d\u606f\u7684\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u7528\u5408\u7ea6\u6765\u62bc\u6ce8\u6216\u5bf9\u51b2\u672a\u6765\u4ef7\u683c\/\u5229\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\uff09\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u5f00\u59cb\u8ba1\u5165\u201c\u6700\u540e\u518d\u52a0\u4e00\u6b21\u606f\u201d\u7684\u5c0f\u5e45\u4f46\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u6fb3\u6d32\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\uff08ASX\uff09\u7684 30\u5929\u94f6\u884c\u540c\u4e1a\u73b0\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\uff0830 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u73b0\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u7684\u671f\u8d27\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u52309\u6708\u52a0\u606f 25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff08bp\uff0c\u57fa\u70b9\uff1b1 bp = 0.01%\uff0c25 bp = 0.25%\uff09\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7ea6\u4e3a 40%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u91cd\u70b9\u4ece\u201c\u4f55\u65f6\u964d\u606f\u201d\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u662f\u5426\u8fd8\u4f1a\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\u201d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728 RBA \u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\u516c\u5e03\u524d\uff0c\u914d\u7f6e\u5229\u7387\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08rates volatility\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u504f\u591a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u7a33\u5065\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u900f\u8fc7\u671f\u6743\uff08options\uff0c\u8d4b\u4e88\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\/\u5356\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff09\u7ed3\u6784\u6765\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u77ed\u7aef\u5229\u7387\uff08short-end rates\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1\u5f53\u524d\u3001\u671f\u9650\u8f83\u77ed\u7684\u5229\u7387\uff09\u66f4\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u82e5\u7eaa\u8981\u51fa\u73b0\u504f\u9e70\u6d3e\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u538b\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u7684\u63aa\u8f9e\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u77ed\u671f\u9650\u5229\u7387\u6389\u671f\uff08front-end swaps\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u9650\u5229\u7387\u4e92\u6362\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u4ef7\u683c\u5feb\u901f\u91cd\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u987d\u56fa\u3001\u5c31\u4e1a\u7d27\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u518d\u62bcRBA\u201c\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u52a0\u201d\uff1fTD Securities \u4ecd\u770b\u7ec8\u70b9\u5229\u73874.60%\uff0c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u8ba1\u51659\u6708\u52a0\u606f25bp\u6982\u7387\u7ea640%\uff0c\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\u6216\u6380\u77ed\u7aef\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47152","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47152","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47152"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47152\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47152"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47152"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47152"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}