{"id":46092,"date":"2026-05-01T15:29:38","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T15:29:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%a7%b0%ef%bc%8c%e8%8b%b1%e6%a0%bc%e5%85%b0%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e6%8c%89%e5%85%b5%e4%b8%8d%e5%8a%a8%ef%bc%8c%e7%bb%b4%e6%8c%81%e8%b0%a8%e6%85%8e\/"},"modified":"2026-05-01T15:29:38","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T15:29:38","slug":"%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%a7%b0%ef%bc%8c%e8%8b%b1%e6%a0%bc%e5%85%b0%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e6%8c%89%e5%85%b5%e4%b8%8d%e5%8a%a8%ef%bc%8c%e7%bb%b4%e6%8c%81%e8%b0%a8%e6%85%8e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%a7%b0%ef%bc%8c%e8%8b%b1%e6%a0%bc%e5%85%b0%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e6%8c%89%e5%85%b5%e4%b8%8d%e5%8a%a8%ef%bc%8c%e7%bb%b4%e6%8c%81%e8%b0%a8%e6%85%8e\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8377\u5170\u5408\u4f5c\u94f6\u884c\u79f0\uff0c\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\uff0c\u7ef4\u6301\u8c28\u614e\u8b66\u60d5\uff1b\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5c31\u4e1a\u8d8b\u8f6f\uff0c6\u6708\u98ce\u9669\u4ecd\u5728"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>RaboResearch \u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c\uff08Bank of England\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0 BoE\uff1b\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\uff09\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u5f62\u5bb9\u5176\u7acb\u573a\u4e3a\u201c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u8b66\u89c9\u4f46\u8c28\u614e\u201d\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u8d1d\u5229\uff08Bailey\uff09\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u4e3b\u52a8\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u201d\uff08active hold\uff1a\u5229\u7387\u5148\u4e0d\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u4f1a\u5bc6\u5207\u76ef\u7740\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u968f\u65f6\u51c6\u5907\u8c03\u6574\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u7acb\u573a\u65e8\u5728\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u4ecd\u987d\u56fa\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5e94\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\u8d70\u8f6f\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u653f\u7b56\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u7c7b\u98ce\u9669\u4e4b\u95f4\u505a\u53d6\u820d\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Bank Of England Active Hold<\/h3>\n<p>RaboResearch \u9884\u8ba1\uff0c6 \u6708\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08Monetary Policy Committee\uff0cMPC\uff1a\u8d1f\u8d23\u51b3\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u7b49\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u5c0f\u7ec4\uff09\u4f1a\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u59d4\u5458\u504f\u5411\u66f4\u7d27\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff08tighter policy\uff1a\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u66f4\u4e45\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff09\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e0e\u6d77\u6e7e\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u4f20\u5bfc\uff08pass through\uff1a\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u9010\u6b65\u53cd\u6620\u5230\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u4ef7\u683c\uff09\u5230\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u82f1\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u51fa\u201c\u4e3b\u52a8\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u201d\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u4f46\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u4f1a\u975e\u5e38\u7d27\u76ef\u6570\u636e\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5728\u538b\u5236\u6301\u7eed\u901a\u80c0\u4e0e\u907f\u514d\u82f1\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u62c9\u952f\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u5ea6\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u91cd\u8981\u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u8fc5\u901f\u8f6c\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c6 \u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u652f\u6301\u52a0\u606f\uff08rate hike\uff1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7684\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u3002\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff1a\u4e2d\u4e1c\u91cd\u8981\u6d77\u8fd0\u901a\u9053\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u5168\u7403\u6cb9\u6c14\u8fd0\u8f93\uff09\u5468\u8fb9\u7d27\u5f20\u662f\u5426\u4ee4\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u6301\u7eed\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u5e76\u5e26\u52a8\u82f1\u56fd\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Energy Prices And Uk Inflation<\/h3>\n<p>\u56de\u770b 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent\uff1a\u56fd\u9645\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u51c6\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u5747\u4ef7\u7ea6\u6bcf\u6876 85 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u4eca\u5e74\u660e\u663e\u8d70\u9ad8\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u6d77\u6e7e\u5730\u533a\u51b2\u7a81\u63a8\u5347\u6cb9\u4ef7\u81f3 95 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff1b\u622a\u81f3\u4eca\u5929\uff082026 \u5e74 5 \u6708 1 \u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u5728\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e2d\u7ea6\u6bcf\u6876 92 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u51fb\uff08external shock\uff1a\u6765\u81ea\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u7a81\u53d1\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6cb9\u4ef7\u98d9\u5347\uff09\u6b63\u662f\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u62c5\u5fc3\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u6708\u7a0d\u540e\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u82f1\u56fd 4 \u6708\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u5c06\u5f88\u5173\u952e\u3002\u4e0a\u4e00\u671f\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff08Consumer Price Index\uff0cCPI\uff1a\u8861\u91cf\u5c45\u6c11\u8d2d\u4e70\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u4e3a 3.1%\uff0c\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\uff1b\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u4ea4\u901a\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u63a8\u52a8\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u53ef\u80fd\u5347\u81f3 3.3%\u3002\u82e5\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\uff08core inflation\uff1a\u5254\u9664\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u6ce2\u52a8\u5927\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u540e\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u4e5f\u4ecd\u7136\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u52a0\u606f\u7406\u7531\u4f1a\u66f4\u5145\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u82f1\u9551\u6ce2\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u4e70\u5165\u82f1\u9551\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08GBP call options\uff1a\u652f\u4ed8\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u540e\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u6309\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5165\u82f1\u9551\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u62bc\u6ce8\u82f1\u9551\u4e0a\u6da8\u6216\u5bf9\u51b2\u98ce\u9669\uff09\uff0c\u5bf9\u51b2\u6216\u5e03\u5c40\u76f8\u5bf9\u66f4\u201c\u9e3d\u6d3e\u201d\u7684\u592e\u884c\u8d27\u5e01\uff08dovish\uff1a\u503e\u5411\u7ef4\u6301\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u3001\u66f4\u652f\u6301\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff09\u3002\u5173\u6ce8\u82f1\u9551\/\u7f8e\u5143\u671f\u6743\u7684\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\u53ef\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u4e0e 6 \u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5229\u7387\u5e02\u573a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8 SONIA \u671f\u8d27\uff08SONIA futures\uff1a\u4e0e\u82f1\u56fd\u9694\u591c\u5229\u7387 SONIA \u6302\u94a9\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\uff09\u3002\u5b83\u4f1a\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u53cd\u6620\u590f\u5b63\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u82e5\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7d27\u5f20\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u629b\u552e\u8fd1\u6708 SONIA \u5408\u7ea6\uff08sell off\uff1a\u96c6\u4e2d\u5356\u51fa\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\uff0c\u628a\u201c\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u201d\uff08tightening\uff1a\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u51cf\u5c11\u5bbd\u677e\uff09\u6982\u7387\u5b9a\u4ef7\u5f97\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e3a\u987a\u7740\u65e5\u5e38\u80fd\u6e90\u6d88\u606f\u3001\u5e03\u5c40\u66f4\u504f\u201c\u9e70\u6d3e\u91cd\u5b9a\u4ef7\u201d\uff08hawkish repricing\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u628a\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e3a\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001\u66f4\u7d27\uff09\u63d0\u4f9b\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u5f31\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0d\u52a8\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5347\u81f3 4.5%\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u4e1a PMI\uff08Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index\uff1a\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u6307\u6570\uff1b\u9ad8\u4e8e 50 \u901a\u5e38\u4ee3\u8868\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e 50 \u4ee3\u8868\u6536\u7f29\uff09\u4e5f\u8dcc\u7834 50\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u8f7b\u5fae\u6536\u7f29\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u660e\u663e\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4e5f\u5fc5\u987b\u8003\u8651\uff1a\u5c31\u4e1a\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u6570\u636e\u504f\u5f31\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u592e\u884c\u7ee7\u7eed\u89c2\u671b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u5f00\u8bbe VT Markets \u771f\u5b9e\u8d26\u6237<\/a>\u00a0\u5e76\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613<\/a>\u3002 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