{"id":45880,"date":"2026-04-29T16:56:24","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T16:56:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a84%e6%9c%88%e5%b0%86%e7%bb%b4%e6%8c%81%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e5%9c%a83-50-3-75%e4%b8%8d%e5%8f%98%ef%bc%8c%e7%a7%b0\/"},"modified":"2026-04-29T16:56:24","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T16:56:24","slug":"%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a84%e6%9c%88%e5%b0%86%e7%bb%b4%e6%8c%81%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e5%9c%a83-50-3-75%e4%b8%8d%e5%8f%98%ef%bc%8c%e7%a7%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a84%e6%9c%88%e5%b0%86%e7%bb%b4%e6%8c%81%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e5%9c%a83-50-3-75%e4%b8%8d%e5%8f%98%ef%bc%8c%e7%a7%b0\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9053\u660e\u8bc1\u5238\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a84\u6708\u5c06\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u57283.50%\u20133.75%\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u79f0\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u8010\u5fc3\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u8d8b\u4e8e\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u63a8\u5347\u901a\u80c0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TD Securities\uff08\u9053\u660e\u8bc1\u5238\uff09\u5168\u7403\u7b56\u7565\u56e2\u961f\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u57284\u6708FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u628a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff08\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\uff09\u7ef4\u6301\u57283.50\u20133.75%\u3002\u8be5\u56e2\u961f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u4f9b\u9700\u66f4\u5747\u8861\uff08\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u8fc7\u70ed\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8fc7\u51b7\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53d7\u6cb9\u4ef7\u51b2\u51fb\uff08\u6cb9\u4ef7\u7a81\u7136\u5927\u6da8\uff09\u5e26\u52a8\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\uff08headline inflation\uff1a\u628a\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u6ce2\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u4e5f\u8ba1\u7b97\u5728\u5185\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u56de\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e2\u961f\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5c06\u56e0\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4ecd\u9ad8\u800c\u91cd\u7533\u201c\u8010\u5fc3\u201d\uff08\u6682\u4e0d\u6025\u4e8e\u8c03\u6574\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u9884\u8ba1\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u653f\u7b56\u4fdd\u6301\u4e2d\u6027\u7acb\u573a\uff08\u4e0d\u660e\u786e\u91ca\u653e\u5347\u606f\u6216\u964d\u606f\u4fe1\u53f7\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Expected Market Reaction<\/h3>\n<p>TD Securities\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u51b3\u8bae\u672c\u8eab\u4f5c\u51fa\u6e29\u548c\u53cd\u5e94\uff1b\u4f46\u5229\u7387\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u968f\u7740\u4e2d\u4e1c\u6d88\u606f\u7ee7\u7eed\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u94f6\u884c\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5c06\u4e8e\u7f8e\u4e1c\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u534810\u70b9\u5c31Kevin Warsh\u7684\u63d0\u540d\u8fdb\u884c\u8868\u51b3\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u662f\u5426\u63d0\u5230\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u63a5\u73ed\u5b89\u6392\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4ed6\u4ee5\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8eab\u4efd\u4e3b\u6301\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u79f0\uff0c\u6587\u7ae0\u5728AI\u5de5\u5177\u534f\u52a9\u4e0b\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u7f16\u8f91\u5ba1\u9605\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Inflation And Labor Market Crosscurrents<\/h3>\n<p>\u53bb\u5e74\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u6cb9\u4ef7\u51b2\u51fb\u53ea\u662f\u5f00\u7aef\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\uff08core inflation\uff1a\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u6ce2\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff09\u57282025\u5e74\u672b\u5230\u4eca\u5e74\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u6838\u5fc3CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6307\u6807\uff09\u591a\u6708\u5f98\u5f8a\u5728\u7ea63.8%\uff0c\u65b0\u4efb\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5df2\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u8003\u8651\u4efb\u4f55\u964d\u606f\u524d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0d\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u901a\u80c0\u6301\u7eed\u504f\u9ad8\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u4e0d\u5e94\u8fc7\u65e9\u62bc\u6ce8\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u8f6c\u5411\u5bbd\u677e\uff08dovish pivot\uff1a\u4ece\u504f\u7d27\u6539\u4e3a\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u964d\u606f\u6216\u653e\u677e\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0e2025\u5e74\u521d\u8f83\u5747\u8861\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u51fa\u73b0\u8f6c\u5f31\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\uff08non-farm payrolls\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u6bcf\u6708\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4e0d\u542b\u519c\u4e1a\uff09\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e5f\u4ece\u53bb\u5e74\u957f\u671f\u4f4e\u4e8e4%\u4e0a\u5347\u81f34.1%\u3002\u8fd9\u8ba9\u524d\u666f\u66f4\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u5c31\u4e1a\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u4ecd\u8981\u5bf9\u6297\u901a\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6b64\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u6ce2\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5939\u5728\u201c\u901a\u80c0\u9ecf\u6027\u9ad8\uff08sticky inflation\uff1a\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u56de\u843d\uff09\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u5c31\u4e1a\u964d\u6e29\u201d\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u671f\u6743\u7684\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u7528\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u63a8\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u9884\u671f\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982SOFR\u671f\u8d27\uff08\u4ee5SOFR\u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\uff1bSOFR\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u62c5\u4fdd\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8d44\u5229\u7387\uff09\u76f8\u5173\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u770b\u5230VIX\u6307\u6570\uff08\u7f8e\u80a1\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u7528\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u573a\u6050\u614c\/\u6ce2\u52a8\u9884\u671f\uff09\u6301\u7eed\u5728\u5341\u591a\u4e2a\u70b9\u4f4d\u5f98\u5f8a\uff0c\u8f832025\u5e74\u6625\u5b63\u7684\u5e73\u7a33\u671f\u660e\u663e\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u66f4\u66ff\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u6bd4\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u4efb\u5185\u672b\u671f\u66f4\u504f\u9e70\u6d3e\uff08hawkish\uff1a\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u6216\u7ee7\u7eed\u6536\u7d27\uff09\u7684\u503e\u5411\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u8d70\u5e73\u6216\u5012\u6302\uff08flat\/inverted yield curve\uff1a\u77ed\u7aef\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6216\u63a5\u8fd1\u957f\u7aef\uff1b\u77ed\u7aef\u6307\u77ed\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u77ed\u7aef\u4ecd\u88ab\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u201c\u7ef4\u6301\u7d27\u7f29\u201d\u7acb\u573a\u6240\u538b\u4f4f\u3002\u82e5\u65b0\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4efb\u4f55\u677e\u52a8\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff1b\u4f46\u76ee\u524d\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u201c\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u201d\uff08higher-for-longer\uff1a\u5229\u7387\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d\u505c\u7559\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u91cd\u78c5\u524d\u77bb\uff1a\u9053\u660e\u8bc1\u5238\u65994\u6708FOMC\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u63013.50\u20133.75%\u3002\u6cb9\u4ef7\u63a8\u5347\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u3001\u6838\u5fc3\u4ecd\u9ecf\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5347\u81f34.1%\u6dfb\u53d8\u6570\uff1b\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u6216\u4fdd\u6301\u4e2d\u6027\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u968f\u4e2d\u4e1c\u6d88\u606f\u7eed\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- 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