{"id":43780,"date":"2026-03-31T11:14:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T11:14:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%ef%bc%88rabobank%ef%bc%89michael-every%e7%a7%b0%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e4%bc%9a%e8%ae%ae%e7%ba%aa%e8%a6%81%e6%8f%90\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T11:14:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T11:14:10","slug":"%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%ef%bc%88rabobank%ef%bc%89michael-every%e7%a7%b0%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e4%bc%9a%e8%ae%ae%e7%ba%aa%e8%a6%81%e6%8f%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%ef%bc%88rabobank%ef%bc%89michael-every%e7%a7%b0%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e4%bc%9a%e8%ae%ae%e7%ba%aa%e8%a6%81%e6%8f%90\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8377\u5170\u5408\u4f5c\u94f6\u884c\uff08Rabobank\uff09Michael Every\u79f0\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u8054\u50a8\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\u63d0\u53ca\u4e2d\u4e1c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u4e0b\u5229\u7387\u524d\u666f\u66f4\u8d8b\u4e0d\u660e\u6717"},"content":{"rendered":"\u6fb3\u6d32\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\uff08RBA\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8303\u56f4\u4e0e\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u4ecd\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u6709\u628a\u63e1\u9884\u6d4b\u5b98\u65b9\u73b0\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08cash rate\uff0c\u6307\u592e\u884c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u7684\u9694\u591c\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u94f6\u884c\u8d44\u91d1\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u6ce2\u52a8\u662f\u5f71\u54cd\u524d\u666f\u7684\u5173\u952e\u98ce\u9669\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\n\nRBA \u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u82e5\u6cb9\u4ef7\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u6bcf\u6876\u7ea6100\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\uff08Q2\uff09\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff08headline CPI\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u6240\u6709\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u5c06\u5347\u81f3\u7ea65%\u3002\u8fd9\u6bd42\u6708\u9884\u6d4b\u9ad8\u51fa0.75\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u7eaa\u8981\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u82e5\u6cb9\u4ef7\u957f\u671f\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u4f1a\u9010\u6b65\u6269\u6563\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u3002\n\n<h3>Policy Outlook Under Oil Price Uncertainty<\/h3>\n\u591a\u6570\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\uff08policy tightening\uff0c\u6307\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u66f4\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u538b\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8f83\u9ad8\u3002\u5c11\u6570\u4eba\u5219\u62c5\u5fe7\u201c\u6ede\u80c0\u201d\uff08stagflation\uff0c\u6307\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u75b2\u5f31\u751a\u81f3\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\uff09\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\n\n\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u6587\u672c\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u7ea650\u4e07\u540d\u6fb3\u6d32\u5e74\u8f7b\u5458\u5de5\u5c06\u56e0\u6700\u4f4e\u5de5\u8d44\u6807\u51c6\u8c03\u6574\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u6700\u9ad8\u8fbe42%\u7684\u52a0\u85aa\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u79f0\u5185\u5bb9\u5728 AI \u5de5\u5177\u534f\u52a9\u4e0b\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u7f16\u8f91\u5ba1\u9605\u3002\n\n\u8fd9\u7c7b\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u5728\u6fb3\u6d32\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\uff08interest rate futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u4e3a\u6807\u7684\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u5bf9\u51b2\u6216\u6295\u673a\uff09\u4e0a\u5e03\u5c40\u201c\u4e70\u5165\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u201d\uff08buy volatility\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u53d8\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u62bc\u6ce8\u5355\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\uff09\u3002RBA \u5185\u90e8\u5728\u201c\u538b\u901a\u80c0\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u9632\u6ede\u80c0\u201d\u4e4b\u95f4\u51fa\u73b0\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u653f\u7b56\u66f4\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u5355\u8fb9\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u4ece\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u201c\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u201d\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\n\n<h3>Implications For Rates Wages And Currency Markets<\/h3>\n\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5ffd\u89c6\u56fd\u5185\u5de5\u8d44\u538b\u529b\u30022025 \u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5de5\u8d44\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\uff08Wage Price Index\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u6574\u4f53\u5de5\u8d44\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u6307\u6807\uff09\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e 4.2% \u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u901a\u80c0\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6765\u81ea\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u672c\u5730\u6210\u672c\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u8fd9\u8ba9\u7acb\u573a\u66f4\u201c\u9e70\u6d3e\u201d\u7684\u5b98\u5458\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u901a\u8fc7\u52a0\u606f\u6765\u538b\u5236\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u66f4\u6709\u7406\u7531\u4e3b\u5f20\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7d27\u3002\n\n\u5bf9\u5916\u6c47\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6fb3\u5143\u5904\u5883\u504f\u4e24\u96be\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e26\u6765\u671f\u6743\u5e02\u573a\uff08options market\uff0c\u7528\u671f\u6743\u5408\u7ea6\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u671f\u9650\u5185\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5356\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u5bf9\u51b2\u6216\u62bc\u6ce8\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u867d\u7136\u66f4\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4e00\u822c\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7a81\u7136\u660e\u663e\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u62d6\u7d2f\u6fb3\u5143\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u62bc\u6ce8 AUD\/USD\uff08\u6fb3\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u5355\u8fb9\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u5e03\u5c40\u66f4\u5bbd\u7684\u533a\u95f4\u6ce2\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5408\u7406\u3002\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u521b\u5efa\u4f60\u7684 VT Markets \u5b9e\u76d8\u8d26\u6237<\/a>\u00a0\u5e76\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613<\/a>\u00a0\u3002 <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u70b9\u51fb<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/trade-now\/\">\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>\u521b\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5b9e\u8d26\u6237 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content 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