{"id":32281,"date":"2026-03-26T15:52:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T15:52:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e4%bd%a9%e7%b4%a2%e8%8e%b1%e7%a7%b0%e8%8b%b1%e4%bc%a6%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e8%a8%80%e8%ae%ba%e5%a5%bd%e5%9d%8f%e5%8f%82%e5%8d%8a%e4%bd%86%e6%95%b4%e4%bd%93%e5%81%8f%e9%b9%b0%ef%bc%9b%e8%8b%a5%e7%b4%a7\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T15:52:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T15:52:21","slug":"%e4%bd%a9%e7%b4%a2%e8%8e%b1%e7%a7%b0%e8%8b%b1%e4%bc%a6%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e8%a8%80%e8%ae%ba%e5%a5%bd%e5%9d%8f%e5%8f%82%e5%8d%8a%e4%bd%86%e6%95%b4%e4%bd%93%e5%81%8f%e9%b9%b0%ef%bc%9b%e8%8b%a5%e7%b4%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e4%bd%a9%e7%b4%a2%e8%8e%b1%e7%a7%b0%e8%8b%b1%e4%bc%a6%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e8%a8%80%e8%ae%ba%e5%a5%bd%e5%9d%8f%e5%8f%82%e5%8d%8a%e4%bd%86%e6%95%b4%e4%bd%93%e5%81%8f%e9%b9%b0%ef%bc%9b%e8%8b%a5%e7%b4%a7\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4f69\u7d22\u83b1\u79f0\u82f1\u4f26\u94f6\u884c\u8a00\u8bba\u597d\u574f\u53c2\u534a\u4f46\u6574\u4f53\u504f\u9e70\uff1b\u82e5\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u7f13\u548c\uff0c\u9e3d\u6d3e\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6216\u63a8\u5347\u6b27\u5143\/\u82f1\u9551"},"content":{"rendered":"ING \u7684 Francesco Pesole \u8ffd\u8e2a\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c\uff08BoE\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\uff09\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08MPC\uff0c\u8d1f\u8d23\u51b3\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u5c0f\u7ec4\uff09\u6210\u5458 Sarah Breeden\u3001Alan Taylor \u548c Megan Greene \u7684\u8868\u6001\u3002\u4ed6\u5f62\u5bb9 Greene \u4e0e Breeden \u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u201c\u597d\u574f\u53c2\u534a\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u4f53\u504f\u5411\u201c\u9e70\u6d3e\u201d\uff08\u4e3b\u5f20\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u6216\u66f4\u91cd\u89c6\u538b\u901a\u80c0\uff09\uff0c\u800c Taylor \u4ecd\u4fdd\u6301\u201c\u9e3d\u6d3e\u201d\uff08\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u964d\u606f\u6216\u66f4\u91cd\u89c6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff09\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\n\nGreene \u518d\u6b21\u5f3a\u8c03\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\uff08\u7269\u4ef7\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002Breeden \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd1\u671f\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u98d9\u5347\uff08\u77ed\u671f\u6cb9\u6c14\u4ef7\u683c\u7a81\u6da8\uff09\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5979\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u4f1a\u6295\u7968\u652f\u6301\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u5979\u6574\u4f53\u8bed\u6c14\u4ecd\u504f\u9e70\u6d3e\u3002\n\n<h3>BoE Messaging Signals Mixed Bias<\/h3>\nTaylor \u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e0a\u5468\u552f\u4e00\u4ecd\u4fdd\u6301\u9e3d\u6d3e\u7684 MPC \u6210\u5458\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u77ed\u6682\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u51b2\u51fb\uff08\u77ed\u671f\u5916\u90e8\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u5bf9\u4e2d\u671f\u901a\u80c0\uff08\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u8d8b\u52bf\uff09\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u201c\u52a0\u606f\u95e8\u69db\u5f88\u9ad8\u201d\uff08\u8981\u770b\u5230\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u624d\u4f1a\u8003\u8651\u52a0\u606f\uff09\u3002\n\nPesole \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5c40\u52bf\u964d\u6e29\uff08de-escalation\uff0c\u6307\u80fd\u6e90\u6216\u5730\u7f18\u98ce\u9669\u7f13\u89e3\uff09\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\uff08\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u66f4\u660e\u663e\u7684\u201c\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\u504f\u9e3d\u201d\uff08dovish repricing\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u628a\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u4f30\u5f97\u66f4\u4f4e\uff09\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u82f1\u9551\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\uff08Pound curve\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e0d\u540c\u671f\u9650\u5229\u7387\u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u7ef4\u6301\u57fa\u51c6\u5224\u65ad\uff1a\u968f\u7740\u82f1\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u4e0b\u8c03\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468 EUR\/GBP\uff08\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u82f1\u9551\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5347\u7834 0.8700\u3002\n\n\u56de\u5230 2025 \u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u66fe\u5173\u6ce8 Greene \u4e0e Breeden \u8fd9\u7c7b\u504f\u9e70\u6d3e\u7684\u82f1\u592e\u884c\u6210\u5458\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u8f6c\u5411\u9e3d\u6d3e\u3002\u968f\u7740\u82f1\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u660e\u663e\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u964d\u81f3 2.5%\uff0c\u8f83\u53bb\u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\u663e\u8457\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f6c\u5411\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u4eca\u5e74\u590f\u5b63\u5f00\u59cb\u964d\u606f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\n\n<h3>Implications For Eur Gbp Positioning<\/h3>\n\u5e02\u573a\u72b9\u8c6b\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u662f\u82f1\u56fd\u85aa\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u4ecd\u7136\u201c\u9ecf\u6027\u5f3a\u201d\uff08sticky\uff0c\u6307\u4e0d\u6613\u56de\u843d\uff09\uff0c\u4ecd\u5728\u7ea6 4.5% \u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u592e\u884c\u91cd\u70b9\u62c5\u5fe7\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u82f1\u592e\u884c\u5728 2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\u6269\u5927\u4e3a 7-2\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u8005\u5360\u591a\u6570\uff0c\u4f46\u5df2\u6709\u4e24\u4f4d\u59d4\u5458\u660e\u786e\u6295\u7968\u652f\u6301\u964d\u606f\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u51fa\u73b0\u4e24\u4f4d\u59d4\u5458\u6295\u7968\u8d5e\u6210\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\uff08policy pivot\uff0c\u4ece\u504f\u7d27\u5230\u504f\u677e\uff09\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u4e24\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u5185\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\n\n\u5bf9\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08\u4ea4\u6613\u671f\u6743\u3001\u671f\u8d27\u7b49\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u4eba\uff09\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ef\u5e03\u5c40\u82f1\u9551\u76f8\u5bf9\u6b27\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u56e0\u82f1\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u4e0b\u8c03\u3002\u4e70\u5165 EUR\/GBP \u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08call 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