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\u63a8\u52a8\u767d\u94f6\u53cd\u5f39\u7684\u56e0\u7d20<\/h3>\n\u7531\u4e8e\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff1b\u91cd\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u8fd0\u8f93\u822a\u9053\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u4f9b\u5e94\u53d7\u963b\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u5168\u7403\u901a\u80c0\u62c5\u5fe7\uff08inflation\uff1b\u7269\u4ef7\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u8ba9\u5e02\u573a\u964d\u4f4e\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u964d\u606f\uff08rate cuts\uff1b\u4e0b\u8c03\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff09\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u800c\u964d\u606f\u9884\u671f\u51cf\u5c11\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u6253\u538b\u767d\u94f6\u8fd9\u7c7b\u201c\u65e0\u5229\u606f\u8d44\u4ea7\u201d\uff08non-yielding asset\uff1b\u672c\u8eab\u4e0d\u63d0\u4f9b\u5229\u606f\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff09\u3002\n\n\u4ece\u6280\u672f\u9762\u770b\uff0c\u767d\u94f6\u672c\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u4ece\u5e03\u6797\u5e26\u4e0a\u8f68\uff08Bollinger Band\uff1b\u7528\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u8861\u91cf\u4ef7\u683c\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\u56de\u843d\u540e\u8fdb\u5165\u6574\u7406\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5b88\u4f4f\u5e03\u6797\u5e26\u4e2d\u8f68\u9644\u8fd1\u7ea6 83 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8be5\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e5f\u4e0e 20 \u65e5\u7b80\u5355\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7ebf\uff08Simple Moving Average\uff0cSMA\uff1b\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5e73\u5747\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u7ebf\uff09\u63a5\u8fd1\u3002\n\n\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u5f31\u6307\u6570\uff08RSI\uff1b\u8861\u91cf\u6da8\u8dcc\u52a8\u80fd\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\u63a5\u8fd1 50\uff1bMACD\uff08\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u5f02\u540c\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7ebf\uff1b\u770b\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e0e\u52a8\u80fd\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u5728\u96f6\u8f74\u9644\u8fd1\u8d70\u5e73\uff0c\u4e14 MACD \u7ebf\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4fe1\u53f7\u7ebf\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u8d8b\u5411\u6307\u6807\uff08ADX\uff1b\u8861\u91cf\u8d8b\u52bf\u5f3a\u5f31\uff09\u7ea6 18\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u8d8b\u52bf\u504f\u5f31\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u6a2a\u76d8\u9707\u8361\uff08range-bound\uff1b\u5728\u533a\u95f4\u5185\u6765\u56de\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u3002\n\n\u82e5\u8dcc\u7834\u5e03\u6797\u5e26\u4e2d\u8f68\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u5411 72 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u662f 64.08 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u82e5\u4e0a\u7834 93.86 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u770b 100 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u662f 121.66 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\n\n

\u7b56\u7565\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u8003\u91cf<\/h3>\n\u767d\u94f6\u76ee\u524d\u53d7\u5230\u591a\u91cd\u4fe1\u53f7\u62c9\u626f\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u8d70\u5f31\u5e26\u6765\u77ed\u671f\u652f\u6491\u3002\u6700\u65b0 NFP \u8868\u9762\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u4f46\u524d\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u6570\u636e\u51fa\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u4e0b\u4fee\uff08downward revisions\uff1b\u628a\u5148\u524d\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5f80\u4e0b\u8c03\u6574\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5728 2024 \u5e74\u521d\u4e5f\u66fe\u53cd\u590d\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e0d\u6e05\u6670\uff0c\u4ee4\u767d\u94f6\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u7ef4\u6301\u533a\u95f4\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\n\n\u4f46\u4e3b\u8981\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u6765\u81ea\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u4f9b\u5e94\u53d7\u6270\u63a8\u5347\u6cb9\u4ef7\u3002\u5728\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\uff08core inflation\uff1b\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u6ce2\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u540e\u3001\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u4ecd\u9ad8\u4e8e 3% \u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u51cf\u5c11\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u964d\u606f\u3002CME FedWatch \u5de5\u5177\uff08\u6839\u636e\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u52a0\u606f\/\u964d\u606f\u6982\u7387\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e24\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u964d\u606f\u6982\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u65e0\u5229\u606f\u767d\u94f6\u7684\u4e0a\u884c\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\n\n\u6280\u672f\u6307\u6807\u4e5f\u663e\u793a\u65b9\u5411\u4e0d\u660e\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5173\u952e\u652f\u6491\u7ea6 72 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0e\u963b\u529b\u7ea6 94 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u95f4\u6574\u7406\u3002ADX \u504f\u4f4e\u610f\u5473\u7740\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u6a2a\u76d8\u53ef\u80fd\u5ef6\u7eed\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u5356\u51fa\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08selling volatility\uff1b\u901a\u8fc7\u5356\u51fa\u671f\u6743\u8d5a\u53d6\u6743\u5229\u91d1\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e0d\u5927\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u83b7\u53d6\u6536\u5165\u3002\n\n\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u91c7\u7528\u201c\u94c1\u79c3\u9e70\u201d\uff08iron condor\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\u5356\u51fa\u8f83\u9ad8\u4ef7\u4f4d\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\u4e0e\u8f83\u4f4e\u4ef7\u4f4d\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u66f4\u8fdc\u4ef7\u4f4d\u4e70\u5165\u5bf9\u5e94\u671f\u6743\u7528\u6765\u9650\u5236\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u671f\u6743\u7ec4\u5408\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5356\u51fa 95 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u65b9\u7684\u4ef7\u5916\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08out-of-the-money call\uff1b\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4e8e\u73b0\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff09\u4e0e 70 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0b\u65b9\u7684\u4ef7\u5916\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff08out-of-the-money put\uff1b\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u4f4e\u4e8e\u73b0\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff09\u3002\u82e5\u767d\u94f6\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u533a\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u5229\u7528\u65f6\u95f4\u4ef7\u503c\u635f\u8017\uff08time decay\uff1b\u671f\u6743\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\u4ef7\u503c\u51cf\u5c11\uff09\u83b7\u5229\u3002\n\n\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7f8e\u4f0a\u51b2\u7a81\u662f\u91cd\u5927\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u5267\u70c8\u7a81\u7834\u30022024 \u5e74\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\u7f18\u7d27\u5f20\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u767d\u94f6\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1b\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u66fe\u5347\u81f3 30% \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u9632\u8303\u7a81\u53d1\u884c\u60c5\u3002\u82e5\u9884\u671f\u4f1a\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u4f46\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u4e70\u5165\u201c\u957f\u8de8\u5f0f\u201d\uff08long strangle\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u4ef7\u5916\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u4ef7\u5916\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u4ee5\u5728\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\u83b7\u5229\u3002\n

\n\n

\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 – \u70b9\u51fb\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>\u521b\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5b9e\u8d26\u6237 <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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