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by VT Markets
Oct 16, 2026
美国将于11月3日举行中期选举，此前两年伴随贸易保护主义抬头、对美联储独立性的施压，以及自春季以来爆发的伊朗战争。预计共和党将在选举中遭遇显著挫败，而民主党有望取得可观进展；在通胀上行与利率走高加剧“可负担性危机”的背景下，宏观经济环境已出现恶化。
对市场而言，关键在于选举结果将如何塑造财政政策——尤其是在美国国债遭遇普遍性抛售、收益率升至数十年高位之际。上述组合预计将使市场对“选举驱动的财政预期”的审视较以往更为严格，从而提高更大幅度市场反应的风险，并可能波及外汇市场。
迄今为止，选前紧张情绪的迹象有限：欧元/美元1个月隐含波动率在9月下旬有所上升，但这更多被归因于主权债券市场的广泛波动，而非政治因素。近期美国国债仍大幅下跌，主要与通胀担忧相关；与此同时，标普500指数本月则刷新历史新高。
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