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by VT Markets
Sep 25, 2026
瑞典央行（Riksbank）将政策利率维持在1.75%不变，且未释放任何偏鹰派指引，这与挪威央行（Norges Bank）的立场形成对比。在通胀仍然温和之际，市场普遍预计瑞典央行将按兵不动直至年末；在俄乌战争爆发后推出的政府措施抑制了短期价格压力。
自4月起，食品增值税（VAT）已临时从12%下调至6%，消费者价格数据表明，该降税几乎以一比一的方式传导至终端价格。随后出台了燃油相关措施：5月加油站零售价下调，汽油每升下调1瑞典克朗、柴油每升下调0.4瑞典克朗；7月再度下调，每升进一步下调3瑞典克朗。
瑞典央行预计，随着上述影响逐步消退，通胀将在春季回升；若剔除这些临时性措施，通胀约为2%，从而支撑年末加息的理由；与此同时，市场已计入未来12个月累计接近120个基点的收紧幅度。
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