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by VT Markets
Oct 13, 2026
最新公布的FOMC会议纪要措辞偏鹰，但其发布时间早于更疲软的9月非农就业报告，以及此后更为温和的通胀数据。市场当前的核心预期仍为美联储本月将维持利率不变；同时，市场预计9月通胀报告的核心通胀环比读数为0.2%或更低。该预测支撑了“政策暂时按兵不动”的判断。
若核心通胀高于市场预期，市场可能迅速重新定价10月加息概率，进而可能推动美元突破自2025年夏季以来形成的震荡区间。基准情形同样假设债券市场趋于稳定，且能源价格飙升的外溢效应有限；在此条件下，近期支撑美元走强的因素可能减弱。
市场关注点亦转向11月上旬的中期选举。市场叙事中，“国会两党僵局”的可能性被视为对美元不利的因素之一，因其可能限制新增财政支出或税收举措的推出。
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