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by VT Markets
Oct 15, 2026
日本央行审议委员小枝淳子表示，政策讨论的重点集中在与日元贬值、全球AI需求强劲以及中东局势外溢影响相关的上行物价风险。她指出，央行应在关注估算的中性利率区间的同时，按照经济与物价形势及时调整政策利率。小枝称，关注点应延伸至AI相关出口与进口两端，并评估AI驱动的投资是否能够缓解劳动力短缺、提升生产率，同时研判利率变动向金融条件、经济活动与物价的传导机制。
小枝表示，日本的金融条件仍保持宽松，企业融资环境总体有利；近期利率上行未必会抑制劳动年龄人口的消费，但她希望检视其对家庭部门的累积影响。她认为中性利率明显高于1%，并称在缩表期间，央行政府债券持仓变动对长期利率的影响可能小于资产负债表主动扩张阶段。她表示，过去一年左右的潜在通胀约为2%，CPI价格分布显示，随着工资上升，通胀预期正锚定在2%左右。美元/日元下跌0.45%，报157.60。
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