印尼央行维持BI利率在5.75%，流动性微调未能稳定印尼盾 - VT Markets

印尼央行维持BI利率在5.75%，流动性微调未能稳定印尼盾

by VT Markets

/

Oct 23, 2026

印尼央行在市场预期分化下维持BI-Rate不变

印尼央行（Bank Indonesia）10月将BI-Rate维持在5.75%，在5月至6月累计加息100个基点后，连续第四次按兵不动。该决定出台之际，市场观点分化：在彭博调查中，38位分析师约半数预计利率不变，其余则预计至少上调25个基点，主要因担忧印尼盾走弱、资本外流，以及MSCI警告印尼可能从新兴市场被调整为“单独市场”（Standalone）地位。

替代性政策工具与市场反应

印尼央行未上调基准利率，而是通过收紧部分流动性参数以支持印尼盾，同时力图兼顾经济增长。该行将隔夜存款便利（Deposit Facility）利率上调25个基点至5.00%，并计划分两步将存款准备金率下调200个基点，于12月降至7%；同时通过境内无本金交割远期（DNDF）扩大对冲激励。尽管如此，公告后美元兑印尼盾（USD/IDR）回升至18,000上方，印尼盾年初至今下跌7.3%；自6月以来，对冲措施已吸引99亿美元外资流入，但更广泛的压力仍包括证券投资组合外流、经常账户赤字扩大以及全球收益率高企。

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