by VT Markets
Sep 3, 2026
英国央行首席经济学家胡·皮尔（Huw Pill）表示，政策制定者应将英国央行基准利率（Bank Rate）上调至4%，并称与中东冲突及能源价格相关的不确定性不应成为推迟行动的理由。他警告称，等待可能导致货币政策“落后于形势”，使更高的能源成本向工资和国内价格传导，并在利率设定中形成维持现状偏误。皮尔还表示，在能源价格走势不明朗的情况下，对利率进行精细调节十分困难。
他指出，将利率上调至4%本身并不意味着将进入一段长期的激进紧缩周期，但强调及时加息可限制“追赶式”调整动力，并通过更清晰的政策沟通帮助引导市场。皮尔对“劳动力市场闲置”将阻止第二轮效应的观点提出质疑，并表示有理由预期这些效应将强于此前通胀目标制早期阶段。
他补充称，伊朗战争尚未导致长期通胀预期“脱锚”，并敦促货币政策委员会在阐释其分析框架时，应谨慎依赖相对极端的“假设情景”（what-if scenarios）。
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