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by VT Markets
Aug 18, 2026
黄金正从市场预期中获得支撑：在美国通胀与就业数据走软之后，美联储可能在今年剩余时间维持利率不变。与此同时，收益率曲线短端趋于企稳以及“美元走弱”的叙事共同发酵，推动资产管理机构增加黄金多头敞口；但部分仓位仍保留下行对冲，以防范由油价驱动的政策冲击风险。
中东紧张局势引发的能源价格波动限制了黄金短期上行空间。波斯湾地区的敌对行动使供应通道面临暴露风险。若油价出现飙升，可能重新点燃通胀担忧，并促使市场对今年及明年联邦基金利率路径进行上修定价。
道明证券（TD Securities）预计，上述因素将使金价在2027年初之前维持区间震荡，运行区间为每盎司4,200美元至4,500美元；随着通胀压力缓解，2027年晚些时候金价存在进一步上行空间。
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