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About: josephine

Recent Posts by josephine

欧洲央行维持利率在2.25%不变，拉加德表态保留政策选项，市场聚焦9月加息预期

Open policy document on a neon-lit surface, with a pen poised to sign.

欧洲央行7月按兵不动并保留“完全选择权”，市场反应平淡，9月末次加息25bp定价或被低估。把握错配：€STR/EONIA互换做多利率，低波动期配置9月Euribor看跌期权。

Written on July 23, 2026 at 8:29 pm
Categories: Live Updates

市场严阵以待美国经济分析局（BEA）修订美国核心PCE编制方法，对通胀趋势影响有限

Policy document with a pen resting on it, as if about to sign.

警惕9月30日BEA修订PCE引发“低通胀”错觉：仅涉3.67%权重类别，核心PCE或下修15bp属技术性调整，难改美联储路径，或致衍生品短期错定价。

Written on July 23, 2026 at 8:00 pm
Categories: Live Updates

霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势推升供应担忧，期权交易员转向价差策略，WTI突破90美元

地缘冲突升温推升WTI月内累涨约30%至90.50美元创高，供应中断溢价与波动率上行并存；盘面超买临近95阻力，宜以牛市价差控险布局。

Written on July 23, 2026 at 7:59 pm
Categories: Live Updates

道明证券认为，油价推动的美联储7月加息定价被高估，支持做多接收7月OIS利率互换（Receive）

Modern building at night with pink neon vertical lights along tall glass towers in a dark sky.

油价与地缘风险推升7月加息隐含概率至8bp，TD Securities称定价过度、建议接收7月OIS；若延续至FOMC前，偏离或创十年次高。

Written on July 23, 2026 at 7:29 pm
Categories: Live Updates

欧元/英镑走低：欧洲央行维持利率不变，市场计入9月加息预期，能源因素与英国不确定性施压

Glowing neon pound sterling symbol with holographic charts and graphs in the background, representing financial data.

欧元/英镑在欧洲央行按兵不动后冲高回落，通胀上行风险与能源冲击加剧不确定性，市场计价9月加息。把握隐波低位，短期限跨式/宽跨式及油价对冲或成机会。

Written on July 23, 2026 at 7:00 pm
Categories: Live Updates

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