by VT Markets
Oct 21, 2026
加拿大央行在下一次利率决议前面临更为紧迫的增长—通胀权衡。《2024年第三季度加拿大企业展望调查》显示，截至8月企业经营状况趋于稳固，但在加美贸易谈判破裂后，市场情绪转弱。调查期内通胀预期上行，使政策前景更为复杂；与此同时，债券收益率上升以及企业与家庭融资成本走高，正推动金融条件收紧。
在行长发表偏鹰派言论后，市场对10月采取行动的定价有所强化，但最新数据释放出喜忧参半的信号。9月CPI显示，核心通胀指标平均为1.9%；另有一项消费者调查则指向消费意愿走弱。
某大型银行的基准情景仍为直至2027年之前不加息，但同时承认风险平衡更偏向更早转向，最早可能在下一次议息会议。
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