by VT Markets
Oct 12, 2026
澳元延续周度涨势，周五上涨0.38%，全周累计上涨0.58%；在市场预期美联储10月将维持利率不变的背景下，美元回吐部分此前涨幅。AUD/USD收于约0.6983；美元指数小幅上行0.12%至102.73。美国消费者信心走弱，10月指数录得46.3，低于前值48.1及市场一致预期47.6；与此同时，通胀预期小幅抬升：一年期通胀预期由4.6%升至4.7%，五年期由3.4%升至3.5%。
FOMC会议纪要显示，市场对加息总体存在较广泛支持，但在任何潜在行动究竟属于“预防性”举措还是加息周期的开端方面存在分歧；官员在强调劳动力市场依然强劲的同时，重申对通胀的担忧。根据Prime Terminal数据，货币市场定价显示：10月不加息概率约为81%；同时，12月加息25个基点的概率亦约为81%。
展望下周，市场焦点将转向澳洲联储（RBA）会议纪要及澳大利亚就业数据；美国方面则聚焦CPI与PPI数据，随后关注零售销售、美联储官员讲话以及就业数据。
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