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by VT Markets
Sep 24, 2026
欧元周四交投于1.1380附近，接近两个月低位，此前在不足两周内累计下跌近2%。压力主要来自更强劲的美国数据、美债收益率上行以及原油价格反弹。美国S&P PMI初值显示，商业活动扩张速度创逾五年来最快；随着能源成本上升带动投入品价格跳涨，就业与薪资也在快速增长。
市场同时消化了美联储可能进一步收紧政策的信号，政策叙事仍围绕将通胀拉回2%目标。一场反响不佳的美国五年期国债拍卖推动收益率走高，基准10年期美债收益率升破5%至5.135%，创19年来新高，从而支撑美元走强。
油价进一步构成逆风：原油价格较周二低点反弹约5%，布伦特原油报98.50美元并逼近100美元，这种组合可能拖累欧元区经济增长，同时令通胀前景更趋复杂。美联储每年通过联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）召开八次政策会议，委员会由12名官员组成，并可通过量化宽松（QE）或量化紧缩（QT）来影响金融条件以及美元走势。
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