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by VT Markets
Sep 23, 2026
日元在日本央行将政策利率上调25个基点至1.25%（逾三十年来最高水平）后走弱，原因在于其对进一步正常化节奏的前瞻指引有限。该决定以7比2的投票结果通过。尽管日本央行行长植田和男表示潜在通胀正接近2%，并称货币政策正进入“新阶段”，但他同时强调需避免金融条件过快收紧，并指出明年的“春斗”（shunto）将成为检验工资—物价联动的关键节点；与此同时，他也未排除连续加息或更大幅度调整的可能性。
短期内，日元交易预计仍将对美债（UST）—日本国债（JGB）收益率利差高度敏感。受周一至周三日本假期影响，市场流动性偏薄，可能放大外汇波动。美元/日元上一交易日收于约156.90，阶段性阻力位看156.70–157.00区间（与21日均线重合）。上方进一步阻力在158，其后为158.40（100日均线）以及159（50日均线）；下方支撑关注155及约153附近。更为坚挺的通胀与工资数据、外汇干预风险或资金回流（repatriation）等因素，可能对汇率下行空间形成约束。
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