by VT Markets
Sep 7, 2026
中东欧地区将迎来一系列密集的经济数据与政策事件，首先是捷克和匈牙利公布的7月工业生产数据。匈牙利8月通胀在经历数月通胀回落后，预计将从1.2%小幅回升至1.4%。波兰国家银行（NBP）预计将把政策利率维持在3.75%，土耳其央行也被认为将维持在37%不变。罗马尼亚8月通胀预计将从8.2%同比降至6.5%，主要受到基数效应推动，尽管月度价格涨幅有所加快。
随后市场关注点转向沟通约束与市场定价。捷克央行（CNB）将于周四进入“静默期”，预计在此之前会出现银行董事会成员的相关表态。上周在全球环境缓和的背景下，区域利率有所上行，但市场仍计入捷克与波兰两国各约80个基点的进一步收紧空间。若市场继续重新定价，将压缩利差，可能对中东欧货币构成压力；欧元兑捷克克朗（EUR/CZK）被认为存在重新上破24.250的风险，而若波兰国家银行维持鸽派立场，欧元兑波兰兹罗提（EUR/PLN）也可能上行。
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