by VT Markets
Sep 4, 2026
GBPAUD 走弱，因市场日益预期澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）可能再度行动。澳大利亚经济第二季度环比增长0.4%，同比增长2.1%；同时，核心通胀为3.6%，进一步强化了市场对政策可能需要继续收紧的预期。市场对9月加息的定价概率约为三分之二，并已完全计入11月一次25个基点的加息预期，从而为澳元兑英镑提供支撑。
在英国方面，7月消费者物价通胀升至2.9%，高于英格兰银行（BoE）2%的目标水平，且能源成本上行被视为额外风险。BoE以6:3投票决定将基准利率维持在3.75%，其中三位委员支持加息25个基点，使政策路径的不确定性上升。市场焦点转向将于9月16日发布的英国8月通胀报告（较下一次BoE议息决议提前一天）；与此同时，澳大利亚劳动力市场与通胀数据的发布将左右市场对9月与11月加息时点的预期。
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