by VT Markets
Sep 4, 2026
日元在近期交易时段走强，推动美元/日元回落至155.00附近的支撑位。该支撑位今年已多次经受考验，包括4月下旬/5月上旬以及7月下旬/8月上旬的波动之后。本轮回落更被解读为基本面驱动而非干预因素所致，因市场对日本央行收紧政策的预期升温，同时财政政策相关担忧仍是关注焦点。
市场定价已转向押注日本央行本月加息，相关报道指向加息25个基点，且对先前“加息50个基点”的讨论关注度下降。衍生品定价显示，年内累计收紧幅度接近50个基点；至明年年中累计收紧略高于75个基点，整体节奏略快于预测（后者预计后续累计加息约75个基点）。
日元也受到再度升温的猜测支撑：日本政府养老投资基金（GPIF）可能将资产配置倾向于国内资产，此举将减少资本外流。
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