{"id":46091,"date":"2026-05-01T15:26:21","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T15:26:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e4%b8%89%e8%8f%b1%e6%97%a5%e8%81%94%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e9%9b%86%e5%9b%a2%ef%bc%88mufg%ef%bc%89%e5%be%b7%e9%87%8c%e5%85%8b%c2%b7%e5%93%88%e5%bd%ad%e5%b0%bc%ef%bc%9a%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e6%88%96%e5%9c%a81\/"},"modified":"2026-05-01T15:26:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T15:26:21","slug":"%e4%b8%89%e8%8f%b1%e6%97%a5%e8%81%94%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e9%9b%86%e5%9b%a2%ef%bc%88mufg%ef%bc%89%e5%be%b7%e9%87%8c%e5%85%8b%c2%b7%e5%93%88%e5%bd%ad%e5%b0%bc%ef%bc%9a%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e6%88%96%e5%9c%a81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn-asia\/live-updates\/%e4%b8%89%e8%8f%b1%e6%97%a5%e8%81%94%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e9%9b%86%e5%9b%a2%ef%bc%88mufg%ef%bc%89%e5%be%b7%e9%87%8c%e5%85%8b%c2%b7%e5%93%88%e5%bd%ad%e5%b0%bc%ef%bc%9a%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e6%88%96%e5%9c%a81\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e09\u83f1\u65e5\u8054\u91d1\u878d\u96c6\u56e2\uff08MUFG\uff09\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u54c8\u5f6d\u5c3c\uff1a\u65e5\u672c\u6216\u5728160\u9644\u8fd1\u51fa\u624b\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5c40\u52bf\u4e0e\u6210\u672c\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\u4e89\u53d6\u65f6\u95f4"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u5143\/\u65e5\u5143\uff08USD\/JPY\uff09\u5728\u63a5\u8fd1160\u9644\u8fd1\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u6b21\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8dcc\u5e45\u8fbe\u5230\u201c\u4e94\u4e2a\u5927\u4f4d\u6570\u201d\uff08\u610f\u601d\u662f\u6c47\u7387\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8d85\u8fc71\u65e5\u5143\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4ece160\u8dcc\u5230159\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff09\u3002\u6839\u636e\u300a\u65e5\u7ecf\u300b\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u628a\u8fd9\u6b21\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e0e\u65e5\u672c\u5f53\u5c40\u201c\u5165\u5e02\u5e72\u9884\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff08\u6307\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e70\u5165\u65e5\u5143\u3001\u5356\u51fa\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u652f\u6491\u65e5\u5143\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u52a8\u4f5c\u88ab\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e3a\uff1a\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u5f53\u5c40\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5c40\u52bf\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u6d3b\u6210\u672c\u538b\u529b\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u5148\u653e\u7f13\u65e5\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\uff08BOJ\uff09\u672c\u5468\u6ca1\u6709\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u628a\u201c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u201c\u9ec4\u91d1\u5468\u201d\uff08Golden Week\uff0c\u591a\u4e2a\u65e5\u672c\u516c\u4f17\u5047\u671f\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff09\u4ece\u4e0b\u5468\u4e00\u5230\u5468\u4e09\uff0c\u671f\u95f4\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\uff08\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Positioning And Rebound Risk<\/h3>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u65e5\u5143\u51c0\u7a7a\u5934\u6301\u4ed3\u201d\uff08\u610f\u601d\u662f\u62bc\u6ce8\u65e5\u5143\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u8d2c\u503c\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\u603b\u91cf\uff09\u4e0d\u50cf\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u4e9b\u5e72\u9884\u65f6\u671f\u90a3\u6837\u6781\u7aef\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u51b2\u7a81\u5347\u7ea7\u6216\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5168\u7403\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u9ad8\uff08\u5168\u7403\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\uff0cUSD\/JPY\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f88\u5feb\u53cd\u5f39\uff08\u6c47\u4ef7\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u65e5\u5143\u518d\u5ea6\u8f6c\u5f31\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u65e5\u672c\u8d22\u52a1\u7701\uff08Ministry of Finance\uff0c\u8d1f\u8d23\u6c47\u7387\u76f8\u5173\u653f\u7b56\u4e0e\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\uff09\u57282022\u5e7410\u6708\u4e0e2024\u5e747\u6708\u7684\u201c\u4e70\u5165\u65e5\u5143\u201d\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u5e72\u9884\u6548\u679c\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u90a3\u6bb5\u671f\u95f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230\uff0c2024\u5e744\u6708\/5\u6708\u5e72\u9884\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6ca1\u6709\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5230\u4e867\u6708\u53c8\u9700\u8981\u518d\u6b21\u5e72\u9884\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u518d\u770b2025\u5e74\u5728160\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u5f53\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0d\u4e0b\u964d\u65f6\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u5f53\u5c40\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u5f80\u5f80\u53ea\u80fd\u4e89\u53d6\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u73b0\u5728USD\/JPY\u6b63\u903c\u8fd1168.50\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd10\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08US 10-year Treasury yield\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u7f8e\u56fd\u957f\u671f\u5229\u7387\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6307\u6807\uff09\u4ecd\u987d\u5f3a\u7ef4\u6301\u57284.8%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u51fa\u73b0\u5371\u9669\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u65e5\u672c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u201c\u5229\u5dee\u201d\uff08\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5dee\u8ddd\uff09\u6301\u7eed\u504f\u5927\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u52a8\u65e5\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u201c\u65e5\u5143\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\u201d\uff08yen calls\uff0c\u4e70\u65b9\u5728\u672a\u6765\u6309\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5165\u65e5\u5143\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff09\u6216\u201cUSD\/JPY\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\u201d\uff08USD\/JPY puts\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u6c47\u7387\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3001\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u65e5\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff09\uff0c\u662f\u66f4\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u9632\u8303\u8d22\u52a1\u7701\u518d\u6b21\u7a81\u7136\u51fa\u624b\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u671f\u6743\u7684\u201c\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u201d\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u5df2\u4ece\u4eca\u5e74\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u76848%\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e0a\u5347\u52302026\u5e744\u6708\u4e0b\u65ec\u768411.5%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u5e02\u573a\u7126\u8651\u5347\u6e29\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5e94\u628a\u8fd9\u7c7b\u671f\u6743\u5bf9\u51b2\u89c6\u4e3a\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u201c\u4fdd\u9669\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u7eaf\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Carry Trade Risks<\/h3>\n<p>\u7ef4\u6301USD\/JPY\u591a\u5934\u4ee5\u8d5a\u53d6\u201c\u6b63\u5957\u606f\u201d\uff08positive carry\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u8d27\u5e01\u3001\u878d\u8d44\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u4ece\u5229\u5dee\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u6536\u76ca\uff09\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u4f9d\u7136\u5f88\u5f3a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u4eca\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u53ea\u8fdb\u884c\u8fc7\u4e00\u6b21\u5c0f\u5e45\u52a0\u606f\u2014\u201410\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0810 basis points = 0.10\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff09\u3002\u4f462025\u5e74\u7684\u6559\u8bad\u662f\uff1a\u65e5\u5143\u4e00\u5929\u7a81\u7136\u5347\u503c5\u65e5\u5143\uff08USD\/JPY\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7ea65\u65e5\u5143\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u5728\u4e00\u5929\u5185\u62b9\u6389\u6570\u6708\u7684\u5957\u606f\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u6c47\u4ef7\u63a5\u8fd1\u5fc3\u7406\u5173\u53e3170\u65f6\uff0c\u65e5\u5143\u5957\u606f\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u56de\u62a5\u6b63\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u504f\u5411\u4e0b\u884c\u98ce\u9669\uff08\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u73b0\u4e8f\u635f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u5143\/\u65e5\u5143160\u9644\u8fd1\u6025\u632b\u7591\u4f3c\u65e5\u65b9\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u5468\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u4f4e\u6050\u653e\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u7f8e\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u9ad8\u4f01\u4ee4\u53cd\u5f39\u98ce\u9669\u5927\u3002\u5957\u606f\u4ea4\u6613\u8d5a\u5229\u5dee\uff0c\u4f46\u7a81\u53d1\u5347\u503c\u6216\u62b9\u5e73\u6570\u6708\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46091","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- 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