{"id":13809,"date":"2024-07-08T13:07:50","date_gmt":"2024-07-08T13:07:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=13809"},"modified":"2024-07-08T13:07:50","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T13:07:50","slug":"forex-market-analysis-euro-lower-amid-french-election-shock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn-asia\/notification\/forex-market-analysis-euro-lower-amid-french-election-shock\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Market Analysis: Euro Lower Amid French Election Shock"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">CURRENCIES<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Euro (EUR\/USD) analysis<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>French bond yields starting to move higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Euro edges lower as markets wait for specifics.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>French election results and market impact:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The recent French election resulted in a shock, leaving financial markets vulnerable.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Contrary to expectations of a strong showing by the far-right National Rally (RN) party, the left-wing New Popular Front coalition made significant gains, securing the most seats in the National Assembly.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>President Emmanuel Macron&#8217;s centrist alliance, Ensemble, underperformed but still placed second, ahead of the RN.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Political instability and market reactions<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Resulted in a hung parliament with no outright majority.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Likely governance challenges as Macron&#8217;s party will need to form alliances or negotiate to pass legislation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the New Popular Front, demands the resignation of the French prime minister and for NFP to govern.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Market movements:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>French asset markets unchanged to marginally lower in early trade.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>CAC 40 attempting to push higher but gains may be limited pending further news on government composition.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>French borrowing costs elevated, potentially rising further due to proposed spending by Melenchon, including lowering the pension age to 62 and increasing the minimum wage.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Euro post-election:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Euro remains relatively calm post-election, holding last week\u2019s gains.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Benefitting from US dollar weakness, with potential to drift towards 1.0900 against the US dollar in a calm period ahead.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Trader sentiment and EUR\/USD<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Retail trader data shows 36.57% of traders are net-long, with a short to long ratio of 1.73 to 1.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The number of traders net-long is significantly lower compared to yesterday and last week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders net-short positions have increased, indicating a contrarian bullish trading bias for EUR\/USD prices.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">STOCK MARKET<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key events and reports:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tuesday and Wednesday: Semiannual testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Thursday: Release of June&#8217;s Consumer Price Index (CPI).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Friday: Second quarter earnings season begins with reports from JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citi (C). Additional reports from PepsiCo (PEP) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) earlier in the week.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Market performance last week:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC): +2%, finished at record highs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC): +3%, finished at record highs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI): +0.5%, noted as a laggard.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00a0June jobs report:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The US economy added more jobs than expected, but details show signs of a slowing labor market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, highest since November 2021.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>April and May job gains were revised lower by 111,000.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economists predict this will lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Economist insights<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nancy Vanden Houten (Oxford Economics): June jobs report shows labor market cooling, supports forecast for Fed rate cuts in September.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Neil Dutta (Renaissance Macro): Report firmed up expectations for a September rate cut, suggesting Powell will set up for this in July.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Investor sentiment:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>As of Friday, 75% of investors expect a rate cut by the Fed&#8217;s September meeting, up from 64% the previous week (CME&#8217;s FedWatch Tool).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Inflation and CPI report:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Inflation readings in May showed the slowest price increases of 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>June CPI report expected to show a 3.1% annual rise, down from May&#8217;s 3.3%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core CPI (excluding food and energy) expected to rise 3.4% year-over-year, unchanged from May.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Earnings season:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Financials (XLF) will be a focus, with 40% of S&amp;P 500 companies reporting.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sector expected to see 4.3% year-over-year earnings growth, placing seventh among S&amp;P 500 sectors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Regional banks projected to report a 26% decline in earnings growth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Outlook for Q2 earnings<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>S&amp;P 500 earnings forecasted to grow 8.8% year-over-year, highest since Q1 2022.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Caution among strategists about upside potential despite record market levels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Companies beating expectations saw minimal stock price impact last quarter.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/\" title=\"\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CURRENCIES Euro (EUR\/USD) analysis: French election results and market impact: Political instability and market reactions: Market movements: Euro post-election: Trader sentiment and EUR\/USD: STOCK MARKET Key events and reports: Market performance last week: \u00a0June jobs report: Economist insights: Investor sentiment: Inflation and CPI report: Earnings season: Outlook for Q2 earnings: Click here to open account <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cn-asia\/notification\/forex-market-analysis-euro-lower-amid-french-election-shock\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-notification"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"CURRENCIES Euro (EUR\/USD) analysis: French bond yields starting to move higher. 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