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by VT Markets
Oct 13, 2026
周一欧洲时段，USD/IDR在上一交易日回落后小幅走高至约17,940附近，因印尼盾面临更艰难的政策权衡：一方面需支撑经济增长，另一方面又要捍卫汇率。持续的经常账户赤字与全球融资环境趋紧进一步加剧压力，使IDR对外资流动的突然变化更为敏感。国内信号喜忧参半：8月零售销售创五个月来最快增速，但消费者信心自近期高位回落，令需求前景更趋不明朗。
整体背景也包括更为坚挺的通胀走势：9月总体通胀升至三个月高位，且食品成本预计将推高价格并维持至年底。外汇储备小幅回落，但仍接近五个月高位，提供一定缓冲。
在美国情绪转弱之际，美元表现持稳。密歇根大学10月消费者信心指数报46.3，低于9月的48.1，也低于预期的47.6；美元指数则被形容为徘徊在102.00上方。利率定价出现调整：CME FedWatch工具显示，本月加息25个基点的概率为17.7%，较一周前的24.4%下降；同时，12月加息概率为84.1%。中东地缘政治紧张局势再度引发能源市场担忧，也影响市场对利率路径的预期。
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