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by VT Markets
Oct 21, 2026
英镑在英国8月劳动力市场数据出炉后，对主要货币走强；数据巩固了市场对英国央行（BoE）在11月5日将政策利率上调25个基点至4.00%的预期。以截至8月的三个月计，就业率上升0.2个百分点至75.3%；失业率下降0.2个百分点至4.7%，为2025年7月以来最低，并低于英国央行对第三季（Q3）5.0%的预测。私营部门常规薪资同比增长3.0%，高于7月的2.9%，并与市场一致预期及英国央行Q3预测一致。
市场进一步押注货币政策收紧。掉期曲线显示，11月加息的概率为95%；此外，未来12个月累计加息幅度约为100个基点。薪资走势显示，服务业通胀可能仍将黏着在英国央行2%目标之上；不过，政策讨论也受到“经济闲置”迹象的牵制：经济运作低于产能水平，而政策利率亦接近英国央行估算的2%至4%中性利率区间上缘。财政立场预计也将在10月28日英国预算案后转向更具紧缩性，在此背景下，利率需要上调到多高的空间或将受限。
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