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by VT Markets
Sep 25, 2026
瑞典央行（Riksbank）将政策利率维持在 1.75% 不变，也未释放任何鹰派指引，这与挪威央行（Norges Bank）形成对比。鉴于通胀仍然温和，市场普遍预期瑞典央行将在今年较晚时候之前按兵不动；而在乌克兰战争爆发后推出的政府措施正在压制短期价格压力。
自 4 月起，食品增值税（VAT）已临时从 12% 下调至 6%，消费者价格数据表明，降税幅度几乎以一比一的方式传导至终端价格。随后出台燃油相关措施：5 月起加油站零售价下调——汽油每升降 1 克朗、柴油每升降 0.4 克朗；7 月再度下调，每升进一步降 3 克朗。
瑞典央行预计，随着上述影响消退，通胀将在春季回升；若不计这些临时措施，通胀约为 2%，支持年底加息的理由。同时，市场已计价未来 12 个月内接近 120 个基点（bp）的紧缩幅度。
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