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Live Updates

13

Mar 2026

美国第四季年化GDP增长0.7%，不及预期的1.4%增长速度

美国Q4 GDP仅增0.7%远逊预期，引爆“更早降息”押注！叠加非农、核心通胀走弱，5月FOMC降息概率飙破75%；VIX回升，偏向防守与做多美债策略。

13

Mar 2026

1月美国核心PCE通胀同比升3.1%，符合预期

核心PCE稳守3.1%揭示通胀更黏：降息梦降温，FOMC 5月降息概率跌破15%。股市或陷区间，卖出价外call收息；VIX低买put防守，美元续强可做空EUR/USD。

13

Mar 2026

2月加拿大劳动参与率小幅下滑至64.9%，低于此前的65%

加拿大2月劳动参与率跌至64.9%，就业动能降温。央行或更早降息、通胀压力缓解，市场押注降息概率升至近70%。关注CORRA与国债期货，警惕加元走弱。

13

Mar 2026

加拿大2月就业人数减少8.39万人，未达预期的增加1万人

加拿大2月就业暴跌8.39万人，较预期少9.39万，迫使央行更鸽派、降息押注飙升；加元恐续弱、汇率波动加大，TSX60与银行零售面临压力。

13

Mar 2026

加拿大2月劳动力市场报告显示，失业率升至6.7%，略高于预期的6.6%

失业率连升四月！加拿大2月失业率6.7%高于预期，强化央行提前降息预期；加元或承压、USD/CAD望测1.3850，2年债息或续跌利多国债。

13

Mar 2026

ING首席外汇策略师Chris Turner：以美元计价的能源成本上升拖累欧洲企业，促使欧元兑美元跌破1.1500

欧元/美元跌破1.1500：美元计价能源成本抬高企业开支，外围国债利差因去杠杆走阔；技术面1.1470支撑弱，或下探1.1390/1.1400，缺海湾利好难返1.1525。

13

Mar 2026

意大利1月经日历调整的工业产出按年下滑0.6%，低于预期的0.8%

意大利1月工业产出降0.6%低预期，欧洲工业同步转弱、PMI仍收缩，欧元承压。投资者可用FTSE MIB/Euro Stoxx 50看跌期权对冲，并考虑做空EUR/USD、布局VSTOXX波动。

13

Mar 2026

意大利经季节性调整的月度工业产出下滑0.6%，不及市场预期的增长0.3%

意大利1月工业产出意外跌0.6%，远逊预期，叠加德国PMI低迷、意债利差扩至160bp，欧元区增长忧虑升温。投资者可考虑FTSE MIB认沽、做空EUR/USD或买跨式捕捉波动。

13

Mar 2026

三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）的德里克·哈尔彭尼表示，澳元受益于市场押注澳洲联储（RBA）加息以及油价走高

澳元走强：市场押注RBA周二加息概率65%，副行长称通胀“有毒”且超预期；叠加能源价涨推升贸易条件与燃料出口占比，短线利多但油价飙升恐反噬。

13

Mar 2026

德国商业银行分析师称：美国新一轮“301条款”调查旨在替代被裁定无效的关税，不确定性将延续

美启动两项301调查，赶在122关税7/27到期前“接棒”，关税或续命、政策不确定性加剧。低位波动率或上冲，USD/CNH及澳元韩元期权迎“大行情”。

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