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Live Updates

16

Mar 2026

加拿大皇家银行经济学家范克莱尔表示，尽管税务调整影响同比比较，2月通胀已降温至1.8%，但风险仍在

通胀降至1.8%、核心仅约1%年化，但油价再冲95美元与碳税调整令前景更乱。市场押6月降息近60%或过早；关注“higher for longer”、BAX及跨式期权。

16

Mar 2026

荷兰合作银行的简·福利称：在低通胀与零利率环境下，瑞士法郎的避险吸引力令瑞士央行困扰

瑞士法郎避险属性推高汇率，令SNB头痛：通胀偏低、零利率下再降息空间有限，负利率与外汇干预成选项，但受美国监测与关税博弈掣肘。

16

Mar 2026

3月，美国NAHB房屋市场指数升至38，高于分析师预测的37

建商信心回温？美国NAHB 3月升至38略胜预期，配合30年房贷利率回落至6.4%，或预示房市冻结松动；惟核心CPI仍3.1%，反弹偏战术，关注XHB/ITB。

16

Mar 2026

美元/加元小幅走低，加拿大通胀放缓及美元走软令焦点转向美伊冲突担忧

加元反攻机会来了？USD/CAD回落至1.3659；加拿大CPI年率放缓但核心偏韧，就业强劲、油价地缘溢价降。聚焦BoC与Fed决议，汇价上行或受限。

16

Mar 2026

鲍勃·萨维奇表示，随着投资者面对伊朗紧张局势与各国央行，美元、原油与股市之间的关联正在发生变化

伊朗冲突叠加央行决策周，美元—原油—股市旧联动失灵。BNY称油金比率自86跌破50至48.5，示去杠杆与避险升温，美元或承压。

16

Mar 2026

MUFG分析师维持做空欧元/美元，预计能源驱动的贸易条件恶化将持续压制欧元

油价与欧洲天然气飙升冲击贸易条件，MUFG 继续做空欧元做多美元：原油每涨10%，EUR/USD 约跌0.7%，失守1.1500；油75–85看1.16–1.18，油110近1.13，更坏或见1.07。

16

Mar 2026

美联储数据显示，美国产出按月增长0.2%，产能利用率随后维持在76.3%

美国2月工业产出仅增0.2%显著降温，叠加工资放缓，美联储转鸽压力减。DXY回落料续，可布局美元put/欧元call，并关注SOFR与VIX期权对冲。

16

Mar 2026

道明证券分析师丹尼尔·加利警告：随着全球供应缺口扩大、供应趋紧，交易所铜库存或将被更频繁动用

铜市缺口警报：TD Securities 指未来或更依赖动用LME/COMEX交易所库存填补。交易所库存占地上铜已由2023年底5%飙至33%，其余多受国储、工作库存与美国物流限制难流通。

16

Mar 2026

法国兴业银行称，尽管PMI更强劲及德国订单改善，欧元区1月工业产出仍因行业冲击而大幅下滑

欧元区1月工业产出意外跌1.5%，主因制药暴挫16%与高耗能行业下滑。尽管PMI、德国订单转强，后续仍看财政刺激、AI投资与消费带动复苏。

16

Mar 2026

2月美国工业产出按月增长0.2%，高于预期的0.1%增幅

美2月工业生产按月+0.2%胜预期，经济韧性升温，降息或再延后。利率“更久更高”压债股，偏好工业原料与商品，关注CPI定调。

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