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Live Updates

18

Mar 2026

道明证券称海湾冲突扰动导致巴林与卡塔尔产量下降，叠加Alba宣布不可抗力，推升铝价

海湾冲突恐引爆铝价新一轮飙升：巴林停运、卡塔尔拟停产，2025 或断供130万吨；2026 缺口190万吨，霍尔木兹航道成关键风险。

18

Mar 2026

三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）德里克·哈尔彭尼表示，在通胀前景不明朗之际，加拿大央行释出谨慎按兵不动信号，加元在油价支撑下的韧性仍将持续

油价支撑加元但降息预期回归：通胀降至2.8%、就业转强，市场押注7月降息超60%。政策分歧或推USD/CAD上行，期权关注1.3700-1.3850。油价仍是关键风险。

18

Mar 2026

1月，南非零售销售同比增长4.2%，高于预期的2.5%

南非1月零售销售按年飙4.2%远超预期，消费强劲令SARB短期降息希望骤降。高利差或推兰特走强、USD/ZAR下探支撑；零售股看涨期权与卖兰特Put可关注。

18

Mar 2026

2月欧元区月度HICP上升0.6%，低于预期的0.7%

欧元区2月HICP环比仅升0.6%逊预期，通胀降温快过估计，ECB转鸽降息概率升。反观美国就业强势，欧弱美强，EUR/USD看跌期权更吸睛。

18

Mar 2026

欧元区2月核心HICP年通胀率符合预期持平于2.4%，显示潜在价格压力保持稳定

欧元区2月核心HICP同比2.4%符合预期：通胀降温仍“黏”，难推高市场波动。ECB或维持循序渐进降息，50基点押注降温；关注短端收益率与EURIBOR波动率回落机会。

18

Mar 2026

据公布数据，欧元区2月年度HICP通胀率符合预期，报1.9%

欧元区2月HICP同比1.9%贴预期，通胀降温确认！ECB加息无望、市场押注9月或降息25bp；股市受益可布局欧股看涨期权，欧元偏弱可买EUR/USD看跌。

18

Mar 2026

渣打分析师警告：持续油价冲击推高全球通胀，且往往预示经济衰退；布伦特原油逼近每桶135美元

油价持续冲击推升全球通胀，世银估解释40%波动；历史衰退多在油价翻倍后出现。布伦特135美元或成转折：从通胀焦虑转向增长担忧，配置期权与股指/VIX对冲。

18

Mar 2026

丹斯克称，风险厌恶情绪抵消加拿大能源出口国利好，美元/加元维持在1.36–1.37区间

美元/加元陷1.36–1.37拉锯：美元避险偏强压制加元，油价支撑有限。加拿大央行料按兵不动，市场盯前瞻指引；可用期权铁秃鹰押低波动，待催化剂破局。

18

Mar 2026

由于供应担忧缓解持续，WTI 回落至约93.20美元，交易员等待EIA报告

WTI回吐至93.20美元，焦点转向周三EIA库存。伊拉克恢复出口、伊朗放行降供应忧，但霍尔木兹紧张与API库存暴增660万桶增添波动。

18

Mar 2026

德国商业银行（Commerzbank）分析师Pfister称，欧元/美元期权如今重现战前模式，波动率与风险逆转动态正在重置

欧元/美元期权讯号回归旧常态：隐含波动升、风险逆转更负，市场抢买欧元下跌保护押美元走强。欧元区数据转弱、美通胀顽固，买Put或Put价差更贴市。

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