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Live Updates

24

Mar 2026

德意志银行马利卡·萨克德瓦称，伊朗冲突或挑战“石油美元”体系，削弱美元的全球储备货币地位

伊朗冲突升温或动摇“石油美元”：中东油贸转向亚洲、制裁催生非美元交易，沙特试验mBridge；若霍尔木兹人民币付油款成常态，美元储备货币地位恐被侵蚀。

24

Mar 2026

道明证券认为，欧洲央行观察者会议与采购经理指数（PMI）将指引市场预期；政策制定者呼吁保持耐心，同时随时准备采取行动

拉加德等聚焦地缘风险，ECB按兵不动、夏季降息预期降温。法德PMI分化：德国制造强、法国服务弱，成本升未转嫁。跨市相对价值：做多DAX、做空CAC。

24

Mar 2026

英伦银行首席经济学家休·皮尔称，若中东战争推高通胀压力将采取行动

中东战事推高油价与通胀，英伦银行首席经济学家皮尔放话：必要时出手，利率或“更高更久”。降息预期降温，英镑偏强，股市与利率敏感板块承压。

24

Mar 2026

丰业银行称美元兑加元测试1.37中段阻力位，加元持稳限制进一步涨幅

美元/加元冲高乏力，1.37中段阻力成关键！油价与贸易条件撑加元、利差收窄削美元；高于合理价值1.34。策略：1.3750-1.38逢高做空，跌破1.3690或加速下探1.35。

24

Mar 2026

AUD/USD跌至约0.6950，风险规避情绪及中东紧张局势推升美元

AUD/USD 跌至0.6950，避险升温推高美元。霍尔木兹局势与以伊互击添变数。美澳PMI走弱压澳元，市场转盯周三澳洲通胀与RBA后续。

24

Mar 2026

3月，美国里奇蒙联储制造业指数升至0，高于预期的-5

里士满联储3月制造业指数意外回升至0，高于预期-5，制造业或企稳。叠加通胀仍高，联储降息或推迟；前端收益率上行，低波动策略受捧。

24

Mar 2026

美国私营部门产出温和扩张，3月综合PMI从51.9回落至51.4

美国3月综合PMI降至51.4，服务降温但制造走强；中东冲突推升通胀与供应链风险。美元反弹、VIX偏低，FOMC前可买波动并布局做空美元、曲线变陡。

24

Mar 2026

英国PMI数据疲弱后，英镑走软，英镑/日元在早前上涨后回落至212.50附近

英镑/日元徘徊212.50附近：英国3月PMI大跌拖累英镑，抵消日本通胀转软利多。焦点转向日本央行纪要、英国CPI与PPI，波动或升温。

24

Mar 2026

星展银行经济学家称，申某聚焦稳定，意味着韩国央行近期不会收紧政策，令韩国加息可能性不大

尹锡悦提名BIS前高管申炫松掌舵韩央行，市场却押注激进加息或已错价。聚焦5月点阵图：短端利率或下修，策略偏收固定、买KTB期货，汇股用期权防险。

24

Mar 2026

标普全球报告称，美国3月制造业PMI报52.4，高于预期并超越51的预测值

美国3月制造业PMI升至52.4远超预期，经济动能更强，市场下调夏季降息押注。利好周期股与工业ETF期权、推升短端收益率对冲需求，美元指数突破105走强。

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