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27

Mar 2026

美联储理事米兰称更小的资产负债表将有助于利率制定；质疑缩表者缺乏想象力

美联储理事米兰放话：未来数年或缩表1万亿至2万亿美元，力挺政策弹性并偏紧流动性；中期或推长端利率与美元，波动风险升温。

27

Mar 2026

伊朗原油冲击下，英镑兑美元微跌至1.3340，震荡交投令英伦银行利率前景更趋不明

英镑/美元跌至1.3340，仍困在1.3230-1.3430区间；英国央行转鹰、市场押延后降息撑盘，但“高点下移”偏弱，短线慎赌突破。

27

Mar 2026

3月，英国GfK消费者信心指数好于预期，升至-21，高于预估的-24

英国3月GfK消费者信心意外升至-21，优于预期，悲观缓解或推零售回暖。通胀仍偏高，英央行降息更难、SONIA或重定价；关注FTSE250与英镑走强。

27

Mar 2026

3月，爱尔兰消费者信心从65.2跌至56.7，反映整体情绪转弱

爱尔兰3月消费者信心暴跌8.5点至56.7，创能源危机后罕见下滑；消费与零售酒店承压。投资者可用ISEQ看跌、做空可选消费、做多德债及银行股跨式应对波动。

27

Mar 2026

原油动荡之际，美元/日元逼近160，三周自152.10劲升后上扬至159.70

USD/JPY逼近160，地缘冲突推高油价令日元承压。日本干预与升息预期升温；美联储偏鹰。策略上可卖波动率或买入150看跌/做看跌风险逆转，押注回落。

27

Mar 2026

英镑/日元连续第二个交易时段徘徊在213.00附近，下跌0.09%，交易员测试213.31阻力位

GBP/JPY 213 附近横盘，跌破 212 恐延续看跌旗形；上破看 215。日银收紧推升波动，留意突破行情，跨式期权押注波动放大。

27

Mar 2026

需求韧性提振沃尔玛、开市客与宝洁；情绪转弱或拖累星巴克与嘉年华邮轮2026年业务量

PCE续升靠就业薪资，但信心跌至55.5逼近衰退：消费者转向必需品与省钱渠道。高收入稳、低中承压；折扣巨头受惠，中端与可选消费更危险，盯逾期、储蓄、库存、薪资。

27

Mar 2026

大华银行廖振豪维持新加坡2026年GDP增长预测在3.6%，指2月工业表现疲弱，AI带动电子业改善

新加坡2月工业生产爆冷下滑，UOB警告2026-27增长风险转下行：冲突拖累制造与贸易，STI失守3,200；新元走弱、波动飙升，宜用认沽与跨式对冲。

27

Mar 2026

随着截止期限逼近，投资者无视新闻标题、转而为时间流逝定价，股市走软

霍尔木兹风险令油价飙、通胀与利率再上修，标普逼近关键行权价引发对冲“引力”。黄金加密同跌示去杠杆抢现金；盯OVX、6000与半导体裂缝。

27

Mar 2026

纽约梅隆银行（BNY）Geoff Yu：尽管能源储备充裕，北亚仍面临供应驱动型国际收支风险

能源虽充足，北亚仍受供应冲击拖累国际收支与汇率。油价上扬推高输入型通胀，央行或收紧并容许本币走强，REER低估修复；可布局韩元、台币、日元升值。

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