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30

Mar 2026

中东紧张局势持续，加上全球政策行动护汇，美元维持支撑

中东紧张与避险资金支撑美元，各国或干预护币。关注EUR/USD基差：扩大会推高美元融资成本、压制风险资产。DXY守稳高位，劳动力数据或引爆新一轮走势。

30

Mar 2026

WTI油价在自101.40美元高位回落后仍守在98.50美元上方，特朗普对伊朗紧张局势立场不一引发市场观望

WTI自三周高位回落仍守98.5上方。特朗普对伊朗放话又释善意，叠加胡塞威胁要道，地缘风险溢价再起；美库存降280万桶，供需偏紧。

30

Mar 2026

上周NAS100大跌后，均值回归暗示仍有进一步上行潜力，详见视频分析

NAS100上周急挫4.5%后进入均值回归窗口：CPI偏热引发抛售或过度，VIX回落示恐慌降温。关注反弹条件；可用平值Call或卖价外Put价差布局修复上行。

30

Mar 2026

在避险情绪升温之际，道指期货突破45,500点，标普500与纳指100期货亦走高

道指、标普、纳指期货小升却暗藏大雷：伊朗决议未明、特朗普扬言“拿走石油”牵动红海与油价。VIX仍偏低，宜用期权/ETF对冲波动与能源风险。

30

Mar 2026

金价连续第二日上涨，但谨慎买盘面对全球利率预期限制进一步涨幅

金价连涨两日，美元回落与中东冲突升温推高避险；但加息预期与通胀压力或压制涨幅。技术面区间震荡，期权可押注波动突破，注意对冲。

30

Mar 2026

德国巴登-符腾堡州3月月度CPI升至0.9%，较前值0.2%加速

巴登-符腾堡州3月CPI按月飙0.9%远超前值，通胀意外升温逼ECB更鹰。欧元或走强、德股承压；利率、Bund与波动率期权对冲正当时。

30

Mar 2026

德国巴登-符腾堡州3月消费者物价通胀率同比从1.8%升至2.5%

巴登-符腾堡州CPI意外跳升至2.5%，德国通胀或反弹，打乱ECB降息预期。短端利率与波动或上行，欧元料受撑，交易策略需转向“更高更久”。

30

Mar 2026

黑森州德国3月同比CPI从2.2%升至2.9%，显示通胀压力加大

黑森州3月CPI同比跳升至2.9%成通胀警讯：或预示德国全国通胀反弹，ECB降息路径生变。债息上行压股市，欧元偏强，波动率料升。

30

Mar 2026

德国巴伐利亚州3月年度CPI通胀率升至2.8%，高于此前的1.9%

巴伐利亚3月CPI按年飙至2.8%，通胀降温或逆转！市场恐重估ECB降息路径，利率更久高企压股市、推波动；欧元因更鹰派预期获支撑。

30

Mar 2026

德国巴伐利亚州月度CPI环比升至1.2%，高于此前的0.2%水平

巴伐利亚3月CPI环比飙升1.2%远超预期，预告德国、欧元区通胀或再“爆表”。市场迅速撤退降息押注，欧元偏强、股市承压，波动与对冲需求升温。

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