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31

Mar 2026

2月韩国工业产出同比下滑至-2.2%，由此前的7.1%转为负增长

韩国2月工业产出由+7.1%急转-2.2%，制造业明显转弱！USD/KRW升至1,385或续走高；KOSPI与半导体承压，宜用期权对冲并押注波动率上升。

31

Mar 2026

华侨银行观察到马来西亚令吉与区域同业同步走软，而美元兑令吉（USDMYR）的看涨反转形态预示进一步走高

净出口国马来西亚，马币仍随亚洲货币走弱。OCBC警告risk-off与资金流主导，地缘冲击添压；技术面关注USDMYR阻力4.0150/4.0330/4.0560，上看4.75。

31

Mar 2026

德国商业银行称泰国工厂产出停滞，炼油厂检修、泰铢走强及油价上涨加剧财务压力

泰国2月制造业产出意外零增长，泰铢偏强削弱出口、炼油检修拖累；油价飙升与债务逼近上限压缩刺激空间。交易者宜偏谨慎，关注5月检讨与SET50/美元泰铢期权。

31

Mar 2026

2月，墨西哥财政收支恶化，从-193.18亿比索降至-507.30亿比索

墨西哥2月财政赤字意外扩大至-507亿比索，拖累MXN：贬值与波动上行风险升。策略可偏多USD/MXN、买看涨或跨式；融资压力或推高利率。

31

Mar 2026

三菱日联分析师陈洛伊德称，美伊紧张局势若长期化将威胁能源基础设施，并拖累整个亚洲地区货币走弱

美伊局势升温、中东能源设施恐受袭，推高油价风险溢价，亚洲货币承压。高贝塔且依赖进口油的卢比、比索、韩元、泰铢最脆弱；人民币、新元、马币亦受拖累。

31

Mar 2026

纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯向路透表示，在就业市场信号不一之际，政策已为异常状况做好准备

纽约联储威廉姆斯称货币政策位置恰当，可应对异常冲击。关税与伊朗战事或短期推升通胀压低增长，但未现二轮效应；通胀预期稳。年底通胀2.75%，2027回2%，增长仍韧性。

31

Mar 2026

澳元/美元在下跌0.42%后仍徘徊在0.6850附近，连续五日收跌并回撤300点

AUD/USD连跌五日跌至0.6850，较年内高点回落逾300点。焦点转向RBA纪要与美ISM、非农；技术面0.6855阻力、0.6800支撑，波动或放大。

31

Mar 2026

美元/瑞郎连涨第五个交易日，上涨0.14%，突破200日均线，目标指向0.8000

美元/瑞郎连涨五日升逾0.14%，逼近0.8000并站上200日均线0.7945。突破看0.8040–0.8055及0.8124；失守回看0.7945、0.7889。RSI临近超买。

31

Mar 2026

星展银行经济学家在地缘政治冲击下评估亚洲债券；印度、印尼收益率温和上升，韩国波动较大

地缘政治冲击撕裂亚洲债市：中债稳如锚、新加坡吸金避险，印印温和上行，韩债波动警报大响。相对价值与期权策略成2025交易新主线。

31

Mar 2026

避险需求推升美元指数（DXY）逼近100.50，特朗普警告伊朗；市场静待即将公布的非农就业报告（NFP）

特朗普对伊朗强硬言论推升美元指数连五涨，欧元英镑走弱；原油因霍尔木兹风险续强，黄金逆美元坚挺。聚焦本周美欧数据与就业，警惕美元空头。

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