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Live Updates

7

Apr 2026

2月美国耐用品订单下滑1.4%至3155亿美元，继1月下跌后仍优于预期

美国2月耐用品订单跌1.4%远逊预期，主因运输设备下滑。核心订单仍回升但通胀顽固，令美联储进退两难；市场押注2026年仅一次降息。

7

Apr 2026

BBH的Elias Haddad预计新西兰联储将维持官方现金利率（OCR）在2.25%不变，Breman更新经济增长与通胀预测

纽西兰央行料再按兵不动，OCR维持2.25%。但总裁警告增长或更弱、通胀仍黏，市场押注一年升息近100基点；能源与贸易恶化压纽元，滞胀风险升温。

7

Apr 2026

2月美国剔除运输项的耐用品订单增长0.8%，高于经济学家预测的0.5%

耐用品订单（剔运输）2月增0.8%超预期，企业投资韧性抢镜；通胀仍高，Fed降息或更迟，“higher for longer”升温。美元偏强、股市利好但波动或回升。

7

Apr 2026

美国2月扣除国防的耐用品订单降至-1.2%，前值为0.5%

2月美耐用品订单转跌-1.2%敲响降温警讯，投资收缩、PMI长期萎缩推高波动与对冲成本。如今ISM回升至50.3，策略或转向：减防御、布局周期与曲线变陡。

7

Apr 2026

美国扣除运输的耐用品订单优于预期，2月增长达0.8%，高于预估的0.5%

美国核心耐用品订单劲升+非农强劲，显示经济韧性超预期，降息或延后且幅度收敛。策略：偏空SOFR期货、纳指100看跌价差对冲、加码美元指数看涨期权。

7

Apr 2026

美国扣除国防的耐用品订单下滑至-1.2%，从此前0.5%的增长回落

美国2月非国防耐用品订单跌1.2%，企业投资转弱，经济降温更明确。市场押注5月不加息，债息或见顶、美元偏弱。VIX走高，宜以期权对冲回调。

7

Apr 2026

美国2月耐用品订单下滑1.4%，跌幅扩大，逊于预期的0.5%下降

耐用品订单2月暴跌1.4%远逊预期，敲响企业投资降温警钟。建议防守：买SPY/XLI 5月Put对冲回调，布局TLT Call押注降息；VIX仅16，买VIX Call博波动上升。

7

Apr 2026

德意志银行亨利·艾伦称，标普500回调反映市场对短暂战争的定价、强劲数据及央行鸽派立场

油价冲击来袭却不见恐慌？德银称美欧股跌幅远小于历史，市场押注冲突短、数据稳、央行偏鸽；非农强劲，标普与STOXX仅低高点5%-6%。

7

Apr 2026

奥地利批发价格未经季节调整按月上涨3.9%，较前值0.7%加速

奥地利批发价3月环比暴涨3.9%成通胀警讯！或逼ECB转鹰、提前加息定价升温；德PPI助推。看空Bund、买Euro Stoxx 50看跌期权；VSTOXX料破20；欧元或反弹，EUR/USD看涨期权可布局。

7

Apr 2026

日本外汇储备3月降至1B美元，前值为1,410.7B美元，跌幅显著

日本3月外汇储备暴跌至10亿美元，疑为护盘日圆“弹药”近枯竭。USD/JPY破280、日经跌逾15%。BOJ或被迫急升息，JGB收益率飙升。波动风暴要来了？

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