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13

Apr 2026

德意志银行称欧洲央行3月维持利率不变，预计再加息两次各25个基点，市场已计入存款利率中性水平为2%

欧洲央行3月按兵不动，存款利率2%仍属中性；德银料6月、9月各加25基点，市场已计入，年底或再升、紧缩66基点。增长降至0.5%，通胀看2.8%。德国财政或成支撑。

13

Apr 2026

INGING经济学家Virovacz与Taborsky表示，蒂萨获得超级多数席位缓解政策担忧，提振对欧盟关系改善的乐观情绪

匈牙利“Tisza超级多数”降政策不确定性，却难解欧盟资金僵局、预算重置或拖累福林。ING建议短期做空、EUR/HUF看涨冲400；同时用日历价差布局潜在欧元化利多反转。

13

Apr 2026

美国3月成屋销量不及预期，录得398万户，低于预估的406万户

美国3月成屋销售爆冷仅398万套，低于预期406万套，房市降温与负担压力加剧。降息预期升温、通胀仍黏：可关注做空建商ETF、做多美债与波动策略。

13

Apr 2026

美国成屋销售环比下跌3.6%，逆转3月1.7%的涨幅

警讯来了：美国3月二手房销量转跌3.6%，房贷利率回升至7.1%压制需求；通胀黏着令降息延后。建议偏保守：ITB认沽、防金融波动，关注长债期货。

13

Apr 2026

汇丰称，中东紧张局势与油价冲击推动美元走强，避险资金流入令美元与油价相关性升温

汇丰警告：中东局势与油价正牵动美元、G8汇率。关键看霍尔木兹海峡航运；油价高企偏利美元、压欧元日元，USD/JPY近160惹干预。

13

Apr 2026

美伊谈判破裂后，油价上涨助长美联储鹰派，纽元/美元跌至约0.5830

美伊谈判破裂引爆避险，纽元/美元跌至0.5830；油价冲高抬升通胀与美债收益率，美元获撑。波动率飙升，宜用看跌期权/价差控风险，0.5800成关键。

13

Apr 2026

BBH的Elias Haddad强调即将发布的IMF报告，预计下调增长预测，并评估全球风险状况

IMF周二料下调全球增长，并警告能源冲击或转为财政冲击：债务、利息上升挤压财政空间，国债与股市波动恐升温；避险升温或推强美元，市场转趋谨慎。

13

Apr 2026

道明证券策略师称，伊朗局势进展、通胀数据与经济活动指标将引导市场对美联储政策预期及美国宏观趋势

油价飙升叠加伊朗风险，滞胀阴霾加深！TD Securities料美联储维持偏紧至2026年9月后才启动降息，提醒市场别过早押注，宜防守与对冲波动。

13

Apr 2026

Fastenal第一季度经调整每股盈利符合市场一致预期，为30美分，较去年同期的26美分增长

Fastenal业绩“刚好达标”：EPS 0.30、营收22亿美元微超预期，但股价年内已飙22.5%。电话会指引成关键，谨防“卖事实”回吐与业绩后波动率回落。

13

Apr 2026

多头看好台积电趋势线主导地位，凭借为全球AI、智能手机及数据中心代工芯片的优势

台积电守住335-340美元上升趋势线，基本面强劲但390-400阻力恐现抛压。策略：高位买Put或熊市Call价差，目标回踩支撑；突破则止损转多。

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