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14

Apr 2026

德国商业银行的阮秋兰表示，伊朗拟对霍尔木兹海峡征收人民币通行费的计划不太可能重塑能源贸易格局

伊朗拟用人民币征收霍尔木兹通行费，看似“石油人民币”加速？我们认为更多是政治姿态：对美元冲击有限，却或推高地缘风险与情绪波动，交易宜布局短期波动与油价期权。

14

Apr 2026

法兴银行Dev Ashish预计哥伦比亚民调将倾向右派进入第二轮投票，促使市场保持谨慎

法兴评估哥伦比亚大选：首轮或无过半、进入决选。右翼若整合推共主，巴伦西亚/德拉胜算压过左翼塞佩达；但分裂、CNE调查与财政压力令市场谨慎。

14

Apr 2026

澳元/美元强劲反弹，协议希望提振风险偏好，中东紧张局势下美元强势趋缓

澳元兑美元跳空后反弹至0.7089，但美联储偏鹰、RBA转温和，加上中国贸易萎缩拖累商品价，汇价料偏弱；波动温和，买入看跌期权博0.64。

14

Apr 2026

丹斯克银行分析师称，尽管整体成本上升，丹麦消费者3月剔除能源后的支出仍有所增加

丹麦3月核心实际消费劲增：环比+1.2%、同比+3.8%，零售杂货回暖、服务走强；油价升未挤压支出，或促央行更鹰、降息推迟，利好消费股。

14

Apr 2026

霍尔木兹封锁启动之际，特朗普称伊朗寻求达成协议，并赞扬副总统JD·万斯的斡旋努力

特朗普称伊朗来电想谈协议，却强调霍尔木兹封锁已启动；金价、美元与美股震荡。投资者或布局VIX、原油长期call、股指put与黄金对冲升级风险。

14

Apr 2026

高盛拖累道指在47,900点附近小幅回落；标普与纳指升破6,800点和23,000点

美封锁霍尔木兹引爆油价飙升，美股开盘震荡：道指回落、标普纳指走强。高盛绩优仍跌。通胀与收益率升温，市场建议用能源/VIX/期权与配对交易对冲。

14

Apr 2026

美伊僵局持续，美元走强与油价推升通胀忧虑令白银承压，仍徘徊在74美元附近

银价跌破74美元：美伊紧张推升油价至97桶、美元走强；通胀忧虑令美联储“高利率更久”，压制无息白银。周二PPI成关键，金银比破90显分化。

13

Apr 2026

在美伊紧张局势与美联储政策不确定性下，金价从早盘跌势中回升，但仍在4,717美元附近区间震荡

霍尔木兹封锁升级推升油价与通胀，美元美债走强压制金价：XAU/USD跳空回升至4,717。技术阻力5,000-5,200、支撑4,600-4,500；期权宜做多波动率，跨式/宽跨式或价差+看跌对冲。

13

Apr 2026

德意志银行：能源成本走高与中东紧张局势拖累德国复苏，下调2026年经济增长预测

能源飙升+中东不确定拖慢德国复苏：德银下调2026增长至1.0%，维持2027年1.5%；通胀仍约2.7%。DAX偏震荡，投资者关注4月29日预算与税改进展。

13

Apr 2026

美国-伊朗谈判停滞引发投资者不安，市场猜测伊朗或在浓缩铀问题上让步，英镑持稳于1.3460附近

英镑周一守稳，GBP/USD徘徊1.3460。伊朗—美国谈判进展令市场失望，白宫回应升温；传德黑兰或考虑终止铀浓缩，地缘风险牵动汇市。

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