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Live Updates

27

Jul 2026

美元/瑞郎触及2025年6月高位，市场预期瑞士央行按兵不动维持零利率，押注美联储加息升温

彭博传SNB利率或守0%至2027，USD/CHF六连涨创一年新高。美联储偏鹰预期推升利差，建议买call/做多，目标0.8300，止损0.8100。

27

Jul 2026

美元走软，美元兑日元跌破164，市场静候美联储与日本央行决议

美元/日元回落至163.70，地缘缓和压低美元。焦点转向美联储、日央行“按兵不动”但口风关键。双央行周料推升波动，宜用跨式/日元看涨期权对冲急跌。

27

Jul 2026

在强劲增长支撑下，金管局再度收紧政策促新元走强，美元兑新元（USD/SGD）小幅回落

MAS二度意外收紧：仅微调S$NEER升值斜率，却强化新元走强预期。USD/SGD或下探1.2750。策略：买短天期put、做1Y SORA payer swap，并买近ATM跨式捕捉波动率上行。

27

Jul 2026

澳元/美元自0.7011回落，油价下跌拖累，澳洲CPI与美联储决议成焦点

澳元/美元冲高回落仍偏稳，停火令油价暴跌提振风险情绪。市场紧盯澳洲CPI、RBA讲话与美联储决议；技术面0.6990附近拉锯，阻力0.7006。

27

Jul 2026

WTI跌至82.60美元，美国与伊朗暂缓紧张局势缓解风险溢价，波动率回落

WTI跌至82.60美元，停火预期令地缘溢价蒸发；但红海与霍尔木兹尾部风险未除。波动率回落下，可卖OTM期权、熊市认购差、铁秃鹰，并用看涨对冲。

27

Jul 2026

法国巴黎银行预计英国经济增长放缓、通胀走高，英格兰银行或于2026年加息

伊朗战争推升通胀，英经济2026放缓至1%。BNP转鹰：料英行下半年加息25bp，10年期国债收益率高企后2027回落至4.30%；英镑料走弱，GBP/USD或见1.32。

27

Jul 2026

欧元区指标稳健，市场已计入欧洲央行9月加息；欧元/美元受限于1.1483附近

欧元区景气回暖：德国IFO升至86.6，PMI与ZEW同步走强，复苏信号增强；惟通胀偏高。市场押注ECB 9月加息25基点约90%，欧元涨幅受限。

27

Jul 2026

市场聚焦美联储按兵不动，100美元油价为通胀蒙上阴影；黄金、美元/日元与英镑成焦点

FOMC与油价重返100美元成市场引爆点：金价受阻4,100或回测4,000/上看4,200；美元/日元守162.00博164.50；英镑防守，期权偏空。

27

Jul 2026

欧元/美元交易员严阵以待：美联储决议与欧元区通胀数据逼近，波动性或将加剧

EUR/USD 高位回吐，FOMC 与欧区通胀前波动将升温：短期买入欧元看跌对冲鹰派；DXY 以看涨价差押注强硬措辞；油市以 WTI 牛市价差防霍尔木兹供应冲击。

27

Jul 2026

7月抛售后欧洲收益率跳升，市场押注欧洲央行进一步加息，推动反转交易升温

7月债市抛售推高西欧2年/10年收益率约30bp，市场押注ECB 9月再加息、明年或至2.75%。但涨势或过头，建议收固定/买Bund看涨，捕捉回落与欧元反弹。

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