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Live Updates

31

Aug 2026

荷兰合作银行预计加拿大央行将维持利率在2.25%，市场押注年底前再度收紧政策

市场押注年底前加息17bp，但Rabobank料加央行9月按兵不动、2.25%持平至2027。出口撑GDP仍脆弱；关税与能源推高通胀。交易：收固定/买CORRA。

31

Aug 2026

沃什警示可能进一步加息，杰克逊霍尔立场转向推高加息概率，收益率曲线趋于平坦

Warsh杰克逊霍尔首秀转鹰：不排除再加息，短端预期飙升、长端回落。9月就业与CPI前波动或放大，建议2/10年熊市趋平、空SOFR，并买短期限跨式。

31

Aug 2026

美元在杰克逊霍尔会议后飙升并趋稳，就业数据临近；中东紧张局势升温推高油价

Warsh鹰派推升美元后横盘，焦点转向双非农；欧通胀升温押注ECB加息，日元逼160警惕干预。中东战事推油价，美方“便士认股权证”布局委国油，改写能源定价。

31

Aug 2026

金价回落至4,397美元，获利回吐升温；美元走强及美联储鹰派立场压制后市展望

金价自4,700美元见顶回落至4,397美元，美元走强与获利了结主导。A浪近尾声、B浪待反弹；先破4,510才望4,580–4,620，随后C浪或下探4,330–4,250，甚至4,100。

31

Aug 2026

沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话引发美债短端抛售，金价下跌，紧张局势推高油价

Warsh 鹰派引爆前端利率重定价：2年期飙升、9月加息概率升至61%，长端淡定；美股温和、金价暴跌、油价因中东冲突跳涨。衍生品聚焦短端与对冲。

31

Aug 2026

巴西7月名义预算赤字扩大至976亿雷亚尔，较预期少13.6亿雷亚尔

巴西7月名义赤字飙至976亿雷亚尔，较预估多136亿；财政“爆冷”恐压低雷亚尔、推升风险溢价。交易者关注USD/BRL多头、DI曲线陡峭化及股市防守策略。

31

Aug 2026

金价持稳于4,436美元附近，联储局偏鹰限制涨幅，债券收益率上升与油价飙涨

黄金周一守稳但跌破200日线至4,436美元；杰克逊霍尔推升美元与美债利率，9月加息概率升至61%。油价走强添波动，策略偏空/买Put，警惕反转。

31

Aug 2026

沃什在杰克逊霍尔鹰派转向推高9月加息概率，市场严阵以待美国数据潮

美联储杰克逊霍尔偏鹰讲话引爆重定价：9月加息概率升破50%，收益率曲线走平、美元转强。JOLTS、ISM与非农将定胜负；衍生品宜押美元看涨、曲线走平与国债跨式。

31

Aug 2026

在鹰派美联储押注与美伊紧张局势拖累下，金价企稳于4,450美元附近

黄金周一徘徊4,450美元：美联储9月加息概率飙至61%推升美元，金价跌破200日均线转弱；美伊冲突升温仅部分托底。支撑看4,400/4,310。

31

Aug 2026

比利时第二季度GDP停滞，提振市场对欧洲央行降息押注并加大欧元下行风险

比利时次季GDP按季零增长，欧元区动能停滞信号强烈；押注ECB 9月更积极降息：做多Euribor期货、扩大利差交易，并买EUR/USD看跌期权布局欧元走弱。

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