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Live Updates

5

Mar 2026

美国第四季度单位劳动力成本升至2.8%，远超0.2%的预期

劳动力成本Q4飙升2.8%远超预期，通胀再添火：美联储鹰派或重掌节奏，2026上半年降息几无望。利率更高更久，股债波动加剧、重估来袭。

5

Mar 2026

1月，美国年度出口价格指数放缓至2.6%，低于此前的3.1%

美国1月出口价格同比仅升2.6%，低于3.1%！通胀降温或逼近转折：美联储更鸽、美元或走弱，美债上涨，股市与风险资产机会浮现。

5

Mar 2026

2月27日，美国初请失业金人数为21.3万，低于预期的21.5万

首申失业金仅21.3万低于预期，劳动力仍紧俏，强化“高利率更久”。CPI偏高、非农待揭晓；短端收益率承压，美元或续强，交易关注SOFR、VIX与DXY。

5

Mar 2026

1月美国进口价格环比上涨0.2%，符合经济学家的预期和预测

美国1月进口价格环比升0.2%符合预期，通胀未失控却仍顽固：美联储或继续按兵不动，降息押注需降温，美元偏稳，市场焦点转向下周CPI。

5

Mar 2026

美国初请失业金人数四周均值降至21.575万，前值为22.025万

美国首申失业金4周均值降至21.575万，劳动力依旧强劲。降息或推迟至夏末，高利率更久；关注利率、国债与股指期权偏卖方及VIX回落机会。

5

Mar 2026

预测为0.3%，但美国月度出口价格指数1月录得0.6%

美国1月出口价格环比涨0.6%超预期0.3%，通胀压力未消；降息或推迟、美元走强。利率交易需调整，股市警惕回撤，期权对冲成关键。

5

Mar 2026

鲍勃·萨维奇表示，随着欧洲央行呼吁对降息保持耐心，欧元区资产仍易受伊朗主导的能源冲击影响

油价上行令欧元区资产再受伊朗冲突能源冲击考验。ECB强调耐心、暂不因短期供给扰动加息；通胀回落与油价低位支撑观望，但财政刺激或推升预期风险。

5

Mar 2026

渣打银行的塔尔哈·纳迪姆预计土耳其央行将保持谨慎并暂停行动，中东冲突威胁土耳其的通胀与前景

中东冲突推升油价与风险，土央行或放弃3月降息、利率维持37%。暂停回购改用40%隔夜供资“隐性加息”，通胀与里拉压力上升，市场波动或加剧。

5

Mar 2026

俄罗斯央行储备增至8111亿美元，较此前报告的7972亿美元有所增加

俄央行外储升至8111亿美元，增139亿，支撑卢布、压低隐含波动；卖波动策略或受益。能源强势与硬通货流入增强韧性，但仍防突发地缘冲击。

5

Mar 2026

尽管存在不确定性，根据2月会议纪要，欧洲央行管理委员会仍对通胀走势保持信心

欧洲央行纪要称数据与通胀基准预测一致，冲击更明显但风险未实质化；利率或暂按兵不动，短期通胀或更低于目标，欧元小跌。

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