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6

Mar 2026

土耳其国库2月现金赤字达944.2亿里拉，较此前2460亿里拉缺口收窄

土耳其2月财政现金赤字骤降至-944.2亿，较前值-2460亿大幅收窄，财政更纪律；里拉压力缓解、CDS跌破290bp，BIST100与债券利率或迎利好。

6

Mar 2026

ING的Ewa Manthey表示，中东冲突升级在供应风险收紧之际推高铝价至每吨4,000美元以上

中东冲突升温，ING上调铝价展望：霍尔木兹海峡若受阻，海运供应收紧、金属滞留与减产风险扩大，最坏情景铝价或短破每吨4,000美元后回落。

6

Mar 2026

旧金山联储戴利：单月数据不足以下定论；通胀高于目标、风险大致均衡——CNBC专访

戴利提醒：单月数据不足定论，通胀仍高于目标；就业与劳动力市场显脆弱。非农宜看均值，工资未过热。联储或续按兵不动，暂不加息。

6

Mar 2026

1月美国零售销售下滑0.2%至7335亿美元，前月持平后仍优于预期

美国1月零售销售环比跌0.2%低于预期，消费放缓信号浮现：加息挤压预算，6月降息押注升至35%。美元或承压，电商强、可选消费弱引发板块分化。

6

Mar 2026

在中东局势持续升级推动油价进一步走高之际，WTI原油升破85美元

中东冲突升温，WTI飙破85美元、周涨26%，布油逼近88美元；卡塔尔警告极端情境或冲150美元。供应偏紧加剧波动，期权对冲与布局成关键。

6

Mar 2026

荷兰银行预计欧元区与德国产出将回升，但能源威胁犹在，德国订单前景转弱

欧元区制造业有望回升：内需改善、德国国防拉动支撑，但能源涨价成阻力。德国订单1月回吐、PMI仍低于50；投机DAX忌重仓，用期权收息或跨式捕捉波动。

6

Mar 2026

英镑/日元持稳，交易员在美伊紧张局势引发油价推升通胀压力下重新评估英央行与日央行政策路径

英镑/日元守在210.70，三周连涨可期，靠英日利差撑腰。中东冲突推油价与通胀忧虑，BoE降息预期降温，BoJ加息或延后。

6

Mar 2026

美国劳工统计局（BLS）报告称，2月美国非农就业人数减少9.2万人，低于预期的增加5.9万人

爆冷！美国2月非农骤减9.2万人，远逊预期增5.9万；失业率升至4.4%，参与率下滑。且12与1月共下修6.9万，走弱更确定。美元回落，FedWatch暗示三会近70%按兵不动。

6

Mar 2026

1月美国零售销售同比增速从前值2.4%升至3.2%

美国1月零售销售年增飙至3.2%超预期，消费韧性拖慢降息：期货仅押6月前15%。可选消费续强可布局，同时趁VIX低位买期权对冲波动。

6

Mar 2026

1月美国零售销售（剔除汽车）符合预期，按月持平为0%

美国1月剔除汽车零售销售环比持平，消费疲态延续。通胀仍偏高令美联储更难转向。VIX回落带来期权布局窗口，做空非必需消费品与零售ETF或更具吸引力。

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