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10

Mar 2026

在美伊冲突与霍尔木兹海峡中断忧虑下，英镑/日元攀升，日本高度依赖石油的日元走弱

霍尔木兹海峡冲突忧虑升温，日圆因日本能源脆弱性走弱，推升英镑/日圆逼近月高。油价仍高、央行政策分歧扩大，波动率上升宜用期权布局。

10

Mar 2026

德国商业银行鲍尔称，中国强劲的矿石进口提振铜产量，而刚果供给面临风险

中国金属进口现分化：铁矿与铜精矿逆势增长，但精炼铜大跌。TC/RC转负暗示冶炼扩产、原料趋紧；若刚果（金）硫酸受扰，铜价或再起波澜。

10

Mar 2026

NBC称伊朗冲突推高加拿大央行（BoC）波动性，前端利率保持稳定，市场曾短暂计入2026年加息预期

伊朗冲突推高BoC利率预期波动，市场从降息转向加息定价。国民银行料至2026按兵不动：核心通胀受控、增长疲弱失业升，前端利率与隐波偏高。

10

Mar 2026

美国Redbook年度指数放缓至6.2%，较最新一期的7%回落

美国 Redbook 零售年增降至6.2%，消费降温警报响起！高利率或正压缩钱包；叠加就业稳、通胀黏，美联储更难抉择，宜谨慎可选消费并以零售ETF put、VIX call 对冲。

10

Mar 2026

BBH的Elias Haddad称，澳元/美元升破0.7100，目标看向0.7150；市场对澳洲联储加息预期仍在持续

澳元兑美元升破0.7100逼近0.7150；澳洲就业与失业预期走弱，RBA 3/17升息概率55%。隐波降至8.2%，市场或转向区间震荡，短期期权卖方机会浮现。

10

Mar 2026

德银称英国短端利率因鹰派重新定价提振英镑，逆转此前对英国央行鸽派立场的预期

德银：英伦银行前端利率现G10最强鹰派重定价，市场撤回深度降息押注，全年仅余约10-15bps；叠加英镑空头回补推升英镑，但能源价跌或削弱支撑。

10

Mar 2026

纽约梅隆银行（BNY）Bob Savage观察称，交易员在谨慎情绪下调低对欧洲央行加息的预期

油价回落与伊朗局势或更快降温，令市场下调ECB加息押注：年底仅约22bp、6月概率不足50%。波动偏低下，逢低买期权防工资数据触发突变。

10

Mar 2026

ADP数据显示，美国四周平均就业变动为1.55万人，高于此前的1.28万人

ADP四周均值升至1.55万仍偏弱，美国就业与职位空缺同步降温，市场押注5月降息概率超70%。策略：做多股指反弹、押美债收益率下行，并布局美元走弱。

10

Mar 2026

汇丰环球投资管理的Willem Sels称，油价波动左右全球资产，布伦特原油或在83至120美元区间波动

布油24小时83至120美元暴冲，市场押注高油价更久：通胀顽固、股债汇受压。OVX约38期权仍贵，净多头降25%，利好航运或再飙。

10

Mar 2026

德国商业银行（Commerzbank）分析师阮秋兰（Thu Lan Nguyen）表示，随着特朗普关于伊朗战争的言论缓解市场对美联储加息的担忧，金价反弹

特朗普暗示伊朗战事或落幕，金价反弹！降息预期回温成关键：市场曾忧能源推升通胀。德商银行称降息可能被低估，就业转弱支撑黄金。

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