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Live Updates

12

Mar 2026

美国建筑许可从增长4.3%转为下滑5.4%，显示先前增长势头急转直下

美国1月建筑许可环比从+4.3%急转至-5.4%：住房与建筑动能降温的领先警讯。叠加就业趋缓，市场押注美联储按兵不动，二季度加息概率跌破30%。

12

Mar 2026

美国1月建筑许可不及预期，按月报137.6万，低于预期的141万

美国1月建筑许可137.6万低于预期141万，房市受高利率拖累。Fed陷两难，市场押注转鸽、收益率回落；建商股承压，VIX看涨期权可对冲波动。

12

Mar 2026

美国四周初请失业金人数平均值达21.2万，低于3月初预测的21.5万

失业救济与CPI再释“更强经济+更黏通胀”信号：美联储或更高更久、延后降息。投资者可布局SOFR看跌、SPY看跌价差与VIX看涨，防回调与震荡。

12

Mar 2026

美国初请失业金人数报21.3万，低于3月6日市场预期的21.5万

初请失业金仅21.3万低预期，劳动力仍紧推升“高利率更久”。核心通胀顽固、VIX走高，夏季降息押注受挫；关注议息与PCE，慎久期长仓位。

12

Mar 2026

加拿大进口额从669.3亿加元降至661.3亿加元，1月录得下滑

加拿大1月进口微降至661.13亿美元，疑现内需放缓先兆。叠加通胀降至2.8%，加央行降息压力升温，利差或不利，加元兑美元偏弱可期。

12

Mar 2026

加拿大1月批发销售按月下滑1%，跌幅超出预期的0.6%，不算意外

加拿大1月批发销售跌1%逊预期，叠加就业转弱、通胀回落，经济降温迹象明显。市场押注加央行更快降息：加元或偏弱，利率与股市宜对冲布局。

12

Mar 2026

BBH的Elias Haddad表示，避险资金流入与紧张的融资需求支撑美元短期走势

市场越紧张，美元越吃香？BBH指避险与美元融资需求推升短期美元与DXY，但美财政恶化、贸易政策反复及联储独立性受疑，长期仍偏空。

12

Mar 2026

法国兴业银行称：布伦特油价冲高后仍守在81美元上方；93.80美元缺口与120美元阻力区间内震荡交易

布油冲高近120美元后急跌，现守81美元上方，93.8与81成关键支撑。海湾供应风险推升波动，关注120阻力；期权策略押突破或收权利金。

12

Mar 2026

美国股指期货逼近关键支撑位，收益率与美元走强及油价攀升阻碍纽约反弹尝试

美股三大期指纽约时段脆弱反弹、逼近下方关口支撑；利率与美元走强、油价偏高令环境更紧。关键看能否重返CP，否则再探。策略偏买Put防守，或守住支撑后做价差反弹。

12

Mar 2026

ING策略师表示，中东紧张局势提振LME铝价，库存趋紧且巴生港提货量大幅攀升

铝价逼近四年高位：中东冲突推升断供忧虑，LME现货更紧。注销仓单飙至占库存40%，有效库存跌破25万吨，波动高企；卖PUT收权利金成焦点。

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