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by VT Markets
Oct 13, 2026
最新公布的FOMC会议纪要偏向鹰派，不过纪要发布时点早于偏软的9月非农就业报告，以及随后更温和的通胀表现。市场主流预期仍是美联储本月将按兵不动，而市场对9月通胀报告的预测为：核心通胀环比读数0.2%或更低。该预测也支撑“政策暂时维持观望”的判断。
若核心通胀高于预期，市场可能迅速重新定价10月加息的概率，并可能推动美元突破自2025年夏季以来持续的区间震荡。基本情境同时假设债券市场趋于稳定、能源价格飙升的外溢效应有限；在这些条件下，近期支撑美元走强的因素可能减弱。
市场焦点也转向11月上旬的中期选举。外界将“国会陷入僵局”的可能性视为一项可能拖累美元的因素，因为这或将限制新增财政开支或税制措施的推进空间。
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