by VT Markets
Oct 15, 2026
日本银行（央行）审议委员小枝淳子表示，当前的政策讨论聚焦于由日元贬值、全球AI需求强劲及中东局势外溢影响所带来的通胀上行风险。她指出，央行应在兼顾其估算的中性利率区间的前提下，依据经济与物价形势，及时调整政策利率。小枝称，在评估利率变动如何传导至金融环境、经济活动与物价的同时，关注点应扩展至AI相关的出口与进口，以及AI驱动的投资能否缓解劳动力短缺并提升生产率。
小枝表示，日本金融环境仍保持宽松，企业融资环境总体有利，而近期利率上升未必会抑制劳动年龄人口的消费；她希望检视其对家庭部门的累积影响。她认为中性利率水平明显高于1%，并指出在缩表过程中，央行国债持仓变化对长期收益率的影响，可能小于在资产负债表积极扩张时期的影响。她说，过去一年左右基础通胀约为2%，从CPI价格分布来看，随着工资上涨，通胀正锚定在2%左右。美元/日元下跌0.45%至157.60。
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