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by VT Markets
Sep 4, 2026
GBPAUD 走弱，因市场愈发预期澳洲联储（RBA）将再度出手。澳洲经济第二季增长 0.4%，按年增长 2.1%，而核心通胀处于 3.6%，强化了政策可能需要进一步收紧的预期。市场目前计入约三分之二概率在 9 月加息，并且在 11 月前已完全消化一次 25 个基点的升幅，从而为澳元兑英镑提供支撑。
英国方面，7 月消费者物价通胀升至 2.9%，高于英格兰银行（BoE）2% 的目标水平，而能源成本上升被视为额外风险。BoE 以 6–3 投票决定将银行利率维持在 3.75%，其中 3 名委员支持加息 25 个基点，使政策路径更显不确定。市场焦点转向英国将于 9 月 16 日公布的 8 月通胀报告（在下一次 BoE 决议前一天），同时澳洲劳动力市场与通胀数据也将左右市场对 9 月与 11 月加息时点的预期。
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