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by VT Markets
Aug 11, 2026
TD Securities表示，7月非农就业数据低于预期，总就业人数仅增加2.3万人，且前值合计被下修10.3万人。失业率降至4.1%，同时劳动参与率下滑。在表面数据之下，私人部门新增就业3万人，而政府部门就业减少5.3万人；其中，地方政府教育就业在近期波动后成为主要拖累。
该机构预计，7月零售销售环比将下滑0.2%，此前6月为增长0.2%，这将是自1月以来首次转跌。其认为疲弱主要由汽车与汽油相关品类带动；同时，预计“控制组”销售将持平，部分反映亚马逊Prime Day后消费回归常态化。
TD Securities指出，这份就业报告不太可能改变美联储的立场，在连续两次供给冲击之后，通胀数据仍将是关注焦点。该机构并提到，ISM数据表现分化但仍处于扩张区间，以及美国第二季度（Q2）潜在GDP增长强劲，均显示经济活动仍保持稳健。
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